Alexander NaterMaja P. Mattle-Gremingernton NurcahyoMatthew G. NowakMarc de ManuelTariq Desai,Colin Groves,Marc PybusTugce Bilgin SonayChristian RoosAdriano R. LameiraSerge A. WichJames AskewMarina Davila-RossGabriella FredrikssonGuillem de VallesFerran Casalsavier Prado-MartinezBenoit GoossensErnst J. VerschoorKristin S. WarrenIan Singleton2017Figure 3 in Morphometric, Behavioral, and Genomic Evidence for a New Orangutan Species10.5281/zenodo.1041357Figure 3. Demographic History and Gene Flow in Pongo (A) Model selection by ABC of plausible colonization histories of orangutans on Sundaland. The ABC analyses are based on the comparison of 3,000 non-coding 2 - kb loci randomly distributed across the genome with corresponding data simulated under the different demographic models. The numbers in the black boxes indicate the model’s posterior probability. NT, Sumatran populations north of Lake Toba; ST, the Sumatran population of Batang Toru south of Lake Toba; BO, Bornean populations. (B) ABC parameter estimates based on the full demographic model with colonization pattern inferred in (A). Numbers in gray rectangles represent point estimates of effective population size (Ne). Arrows indicate gene flow among populations, and numbers above the arrows represent point estimates of numbers of migrants per generation. See also Table S 5. (C) Relative cross-coalescent rate (RCCR) analysis for between-species pairs of phased high-coverage genomes. A RCCR close to 1 indicates extensive gene flow between species, and a ratio close to 0 indicates genetic isolation between species pairs. The x axis shows time scaled in years, assuming a generation time of 25 years and an autosomal mutation rate of 1.5 3 10 8 per site per generation. See also Figure S 3.ACratecross-coalescenceRelative0.80.60.40.01.21.00.2104NTNTPPP...pygmaeuspygmaeusModelModeltapanuliensisSTST0.7630.001//12PPaa/..P.abeliiYearsabeliiBOBO0.976tapanuliensis(10g5=25;μ=0.0241.50×NTNT108)106ModelModelST0.2360.000ST12bbBOBOPastPresentB~~~1.063.3883MaMakaNorth~~~~14,90092,2000.12853,800ofToba~~0.2940.860SumatraSouth~~35,9002,500ofToba~~0.0160.003~~~~Borneo30,7006,2006.824,500~~~~72106303674kakakaka