ludmilarattis/effect-of-climate-on--agriculture: Rattis_etal_NCC_2021

Brazil's leadership in soybean and maize production depends on predictable rainfall in the Amazon-Cerrado agricultural frontier. Here we assess whether agricultural expansion and intensification in the region are approaching a climatic limit to rainfed production. We show that yields decline in years with unusually low rainfall or high aridity during the early stages of crop development – a pattern observed in rainfed and irrigated areas alike. Although agricultural expansion and intensification have increased over time, dry-hot weather during drought events has slowed their rate of growth. Recent regional warming and drying have already pushed 28% of current agricultural lands out of their optimum climate space. We project that 51% of the region's agriculture will move out of that climate space by 2030 and 74% by 2060. While agronomic adaptation strategies may relieve some of these impacts, maintaining native vegetation is a critical part of the solution for stabilizing the regional climate