These codes produce the results of figure S1. The files used are located in the folder named “Datations” and contain the AMS dating for the three sediment cores.

#install.packages("Bchron") #if not already installed
library("Bchron")
## Warning: package 'Bchron' was built under R version 4.0.5

Rosalia

dirs<-c('Datations/')
Files<-list.files(dirs)

Rosalia<-read.table(file='Datations/Rosalia_AMS.txt',h=T)
Rosalia_output = Bchronology(ages=Rosalia$ages,ageSds=Rosalia$ageSds,
calCurves=Rosalia$calCurves,positions=Rosalia$position,
positionThicknesses=Rosalia$thickness,ids=Rosalia$id,
predictPositions=seq(0,143,by=0.5))
summary(Rosalia_output) # Default is for quantiles of ages at predictPosition values
## Quantiles of predicted ages by depth: 
##  Depth      2.5%      25%     50%      75%     97.5%
##    0.0   -68.000   -67.00   -66.0   -65.00   -64.000
##    0.5   -55.000   -33.00   -16.0    53.00   508.050
##    1.0   -45.000     0.00    33.0   158.25   735.125
##    1.5   -35.000    35.00    83.0   245.00   939.225
##    2.0   -25.000    68.00   132.5   321.25  1139.175
##    2.5   -12.000   101.75   182.0   397.00  1248.000
##    3.0    -1.000   136.75   232.0   464.00  1323.175
##    3.5     9.975   171.00   280.0   544.25  1450.250
##    4.0    21.975   205.00   330.0   608.50  1475.375
##    4.5    35.925   241.75   378.0   660.25  1522.175
##    5.0    47.975   276.00   425.0   717.50  1561.350
##    5.5    59.975   309.75   472.5   771.25  1618.375
##    6.0    71.000   346.25   520.5   823.50  1708.400
##    6.5    82.975   382.75   569.0   880.25  1743.750
##    7.0    94.000   417.75   616.5   938.25  1792.100
##    7.5   106.950   448.00   664.0   984.50  1817.450
##    8.0   117.000   485.00   711.5  1028.25  1870.125
##    8.5   127.975   521.00   759.5  1069.25  1894.300
##    9.0   143.950   556.00   803.0  1120.00  1927.025
##    9.5   160.900   591.75   851.0  1161.50  1945.275
##   10.0   176.925   620.00   900.5  1225.50  1962.300
##   10.5   189.900   657.00   947.0  1266.25  1980.325
##   11.0   203.000   693.75   992.5  1317.75  2011.275
##   11.5   215.975   730.25  1040.5  1362.50  2060.225
##   12.0   238.000   770.50  1092.0  1400.25  2086.425
##   12.5   249.900   817.00  1138.0  1443.25  2135.450
##   13.0   265.925   852.75  1180.0  1492.00  2171.275
##   13.5   278.925   883.00  1230.5  1536.00  2180.425
##   14.0   290.925   923.75  1274.5  1578.00  2212.175
##   14.5   303.925   978.00  1320.5  1626.50  2241.075
##   15.0   344.975  1044.75  1368.0  1661.00  2265.050
##   15.5   368.825  1076.75  1412.0  1697.75  2284.075
##   16.0   394.700  1122.50  1459.0  1738.00  2301.000
##   16.5   428.825  1175.00  1499.0  1779.00  2319.250
##   17.0   443.825  1226.25  1541.0  1826.50  2345.025
##   17.5   474.725  1275.50  1588.5  1862.25  2361.025
##   18.0   494.975  1318.50  1641.0  1899.25  2373.150
##   18.5   534.625  1371.75  1685.5  1939.00  2387.200
##   19.0   578.000  1410.75  1736.5  1971.00  2404.175
##   19.5   606.900  1463.50  1784.5  2012.50  2425.050
##   20.0   634.750  1508.25  1831.5  2052.25  2439.025
##   20.5   694.375  1558.50  1881.0  2092.25  2451.075
##   21.0   754.450  1616.75  1926.0  2128.25  2470.025
##   21.5   789.800  1666.00  1969.5  2165.25  2481.050
##   22.0   841.725  1720.00  2014.0  2201.25  2494.000
##   22.5   913.975  1774.50  2060.5  2230.00  2508.150
##   23.0   997.400  1835.50  2110.5  2271.25  2525.025
##   23.5  1112.950  1898.00  2160.0  2309.25  2537.100
##   24.0  1174.550  1964.75  2211.5  2347.25  2553.025
##   24.5  1254.950  2030.00  2259.0  2387.00  2569.025
##   25.0  1374.950  2103.00  2305.5  2425.25  2585.025
##   25.5  1460.575  2182.00  2359.0  2466.25  2600.050
##   26.0  1549.850  2263.75  2408.0  2506.00  2617.075
##   26.5  1751.725  2342.75  2459.0  2547.00  2637.000
##   27.0  1990.825  2434.75  2516.0  2593.00  2668.025
##   27.5  2269.825  2507.00  2591.0  2655.00  2770.000
##   28.0  2456.000  2557.00  2637.5  2695.00  2903.175
##   28.5  2481.925  2596.00  2673.0  2730.00  3031.125
##   29.0  2496.950  2624.00  2701.0  2767.00  3081.325
##   29.5  2515.950  2646.00  2724.0  2801.25  3147.100
##   30.0  2530.000  2670.75  2748.5  2842.00  3179.125
##   30.5  2543.000  2695.00  2775.0  2881.25  3205.000
##   31.0  2556.875  2716.00  2799.0  2911.25  3255.375
##   31.5  2571.825  2737.00  2823.5  2937.25  3292.250
##   32.0  2591.900  2759.75  2852.0  2960.25  3318.125
##   32.5  2601.925  2783.75  2879.5  2991.25  3340.075
##   33.0  2611.925  2804.75  2904.5  3019.25  3369.025
##   33.5  2627.775  2825.00  2932.0  3047.50  3381.025
##   34.0  2637.975  2848.00  2958.5  3073.75  3390.000
##   34.5  2653.900  2871.00  2984.5  3100.25  3399.000
##   35.0  2662.000  2896.50  3009.0  3132.00  3409.025
##   35.5  2679.950  2918.00  3034.0  3160.00  3423.125
##   36.0  2694.950  2941.75  3061.0  3182.00  3438.025
##   36.5  2713.950  2965.75  3086.0  3208.00  3445.025
##   37.0  2726.975  2989.75  3113.5  3230.25  3456.000
##   37.5  2742.975  3016.00  3142.0  3253.00  3469.025
##   38.0  2758.825  3039.75  3168.0  3278.00  3479.025
##   38.5  2780.950  3060.75  3196.5  3297.25  3483.100
##   39.0  2800.825  3087.50  3224.5  3319.00  3494.075
##   39.5  2812.975  3121.00  3251.0  3340.00  3505.075
##   40.0  2835.950  3156.00  3278.0  3363.00  3515.025
##   40.5  2859.775  3190.75  3303.5  3385.25  3522.075
##   41.0  2887.950  3219.50  3331.0  3408.00  3533.000
##   41.5  2915.775  3254.00  3359.0  3431.00  3542.025
##   42.0  2934.825  3288.25  3385.0  3451.00  3551.025
##   42.5  2959.900  3318.00  3411.0  3471.00  3559.025
##   43.0  2984.825  3355.50  3438.0  3492.00  3567.000
##   43.5  3045.850  3394.00  3466.5  3513.00  3576.025
##   44.0  3105.975  3433.00  3495.0  3533.00  3586.025
##   44.5  3165.575  3469.75  3524.0  3553.00  3597.025
##   45.0  3223.950  3512.75  3553.0  3574.00  3615.000
##   45.5  3375.975  3556.00  3582.0  3608.25  3710.025
##   46.0  3505.925  3587.00  3618.0  3656.00  3890.000
##   46.5  3583.000  3625.00  3662.0  3711.00  4004.025
##   47.0  3609.000  3664.75  3711.5  3770.00  4070.025
##   47.5  3623.000  3705.00  3756.0  3830.25  4114.275
##   48.0  3640.000  3746.00  3799.0  3881.00  4151.125
##   48.5  3652.925  3788.00  3843.5  3929.25  4201.050
##   49.0  3666.950  3829.00  3886.5  3978.25  4224.125
##   49.5  3679.925  3871.75  3932.0  4024.00  4251.000
##   50.0  3703.925  3914.00  3976.5  4068.25  4269.075
##   50.5  3722.950  3960.75  4023.0  4101.50  4283.075
##   51.0  3740.000  4003.00  4066.0  4138.50  4307.000
##   51.5  3758.000  4047.75  4110.0  4179.00  4329.050
##   52.0  3792.950  4090.75  4153.0  4216.00  4349.050
##   52.5  3832.000  4137.00  4198.0  4253.00  4367.050
##   53.0  3886.975  4181.00  4240.5  4289.00  4383.000
##   53.5  3966.975  4226.75  4281.0  4327.00  4400.050
##   54.0  4073.975  4279.00  4326.0  4367.00  4423.025
##   54.5  4240.975  4332.00  4381.0  4421.00  4653.025
##   55.0  4318.000  4387.75  4434.0  4488.00  4993.050
##   55.5  4343.000  4430.00  4479.0  4567.50  5284.125
##   56.0  4366.950  4462.00  4523.0  4643.00  5338.100
##   56.5  4383.975  4493.75  4570.0  4725.00  5486.450
##   57.0  4398.000  4521.75  4615.0  4793.25  5586.025
##   57.5  4414.975  4553.75  4657.5  4856.25  5653.100
##   58.0  4429.975  4584.00  4702.0  4917.50  5712.325
##   58.5  4440.950  4615.50  4745.5  4978.25  5783.025
##   59.0  4455.975  4646.00  4787.5  5036.50  5875.100
##   59.5  4475.000  4680.00  4830.0  5098.50  5907.175
##   60.0  4490.975  4711.75  4872.5  5145.50  5941.400
##   60.5  4510.925  4741.75  4915.5  5201.00  5964.550
##   61.0  4527.975  4772.75  4958.5  5245.50  6005.050
##   61.5  4541.850  4803.75  5000.0  5296.25  6048.100
##   62.0  4560.950  4836.75  5046.5  5336.25  6101.000
##   62.5  4584.775  4868.00  5091.0  5373.00  6143.150
##   63.0  4597.875  4906.00  5134.5  5420.25  6174.075
##   63.5  4610.000  4943.00  5178.5  5454.75  6193.175
##   64.0  4632.850  4979.75  5220.5  5504.75  6206.150
##   64.5  4651.975  5006.75  5263.5  5547.00  6224.025
##   65.0  4664.000  5047.25  5305.0  5593.25  6237.025
##   65.5  4679.000  5090.75  5348.0  5626.25  6251.100
##   66.0  4695.900  5127.00  5390.5  5686.75  6292.075
##   66.5  4722.750  5168.00  5429.0  5727.00  6307.425
##   67.0  4738.775  5214.50  5472.0  5770.25  6320.400
##   67.5  4748.000  5247.25  5514.5  5804.25  6332.400
##   68.0  4769.900  5293.50  5558.0  5834.00  6366.100
##   68.5  4791.975  5334.75  5600.0  5876.00  6389.025
##   69.0  4808.825  5369.50  5644.0  5916.00  6412.000
##   69.5  4828.925  5411.50  5687.0  5946.50  6423.325
##   70.0  4845.925  5457.00  5730.0  5987.50  6435.275
##   70.5  4894.450  5500.75  5772.0  6019.50  6447.250
##   71.0  4915.900  5538.75  5817.5  6058.00  6458.250
##   71.5  4936.975  5580.00  5859.0  6092.25  6470.175
##   72.0  4972.900  5622.75  5900.0  6125.50  6486.025
##   72.5  5021.675  5662.75  5942.0  6162.25  6498.025
##   73.0  5050.800  5711.75  5986.0  6194.25  6512.000
##   73.5  5075.850  5756.25  6031.5  6226.25  6526.050
##   74.0  5096.875  5799.50  6074.0  6260.25  6551.075
##   74.5  5149.775  5844.00  6117.5  6294.00  6561.050
##   75.0  5171.900  5898.75  6158.5  6329.25  6571.000
##   75.5  5202.725  5952.00  6201.5  6361.25  6581.025
##   76.0  5255.350  6012.25  6241.0  6393.00  6591.050
##   76.5  5311.000  6063.50  6284.5  6419.25  6601.025
##   77.0  5371.575  6123.50  6325.0  6449.00  6610.075
##   77.5  5436.725  6176.00  6370.0  6479.00  6621.000
##   78.0  5553.650  6231.50  6413.0  6507.00  6628.025
##   78.5  5661.625  6290.75  6456.0  6536.00  6638.050
##   79.0  5794.500  6357.00  6499.0  6567.00  6649.025
##   79.5  5861.775  6432.75  6544.0  6599.00  6659.025
##   80.0  5998.700  6518.00  6592.0  6633.00  6686.025
##   80.5  6206.950  6596.75  6643.0  6669.00  6746.000
##   81.0  6515.900  6648.00  6672.0  6700.00  6847.100
##   81.5  6642.000  6673.00  6696.0  6737.00  6924.025
##   82.0  6650.000  6690.75  6719.5  6767.00  7022.050
##   82.5  6660.950  6705.00  6739.5  6801.25  7077.050
##   83.0  6668.975  6719.00  6760.0  6831.00  7112.000
##   83.5  6674.000  6733.00  6779.0  6861.00  7133.300
##   84.0  6677.975  6748.00  6798.0  6887.25  7202.050
##   84.5  6685.950  6763.75  6816.0  6909.00  7251.100
##   85.0  6688.975  6777.00  6835.5  6938.00  7281.000
##   85.5  6694.950  6792.00  6855.0  6968.25  7310.025
##   86.0  6704.000  6805.00  6873.5  6997.00  7332.075
##   86.5  6710.975  6818.00  6892.5  7015.25  7352.000
##   87.0  6715.000  6834.00  6911.0  7034.25  7360.025
##   87.5  6719.975  6847.75  6929.5  7056.25  7374.050
##   88.0  6724.950  6864.00  6949.0  7076.00  7386.125
##   88.5  6732.925  6878.00  6968.0  7099.00  7400.025
##   89.0  6740.900  6892.00  6986.0  7117.25  7408.250
##   89.5  6753.975  6908.00  7003.0  7138.25  7431.050
##   90.0  6759.000  6926.00  7021.0  7158.00  7448.100
##   90.5  6768.925  6937.75  7039.0  7181.50  7467.100
##   91.0  6773.925  6954.00  7059.0  7202.00  7484.000
##   91.5  6780.000  6971.00  7079.0  7218.25  7501.050
##   92.0  6784.975  6983.50  7094.0  7235.00  7514.025
##   92.5  6791.975  7000.00  7112.0  7255.25  7522.000
##   93.0  6797.000  7016.00  7132.5  7273.00  7534.050
##   93.5  6803.975  7038.00  7151.5  7289.25  7542.075
##   94.0  6814.975  7050.25  7170.0  7305.25  7551.050
##   94.5  6827.975  7068.00  7187.5  7321.00  7564.050
##   95.0  6837.000  7082.25  7206.0  7337.00  7571.000
##   95.5  6848.975  7098.00  7226.0  7355.75  7577.025
##   96.0  6857.950  7114.75  7244.0  7371.25  7587.000
##   96.5  6872.975  7131.75  7262.5  7390.00  7595.025
##   97.0  6879.975  7151.00  7282.0  7402.25  7604.200
##   97.5  6900.950  7168.75  7301.0  7412.25  7617.025
##   98.0  6909.975  7187.75  7318.0  7428.25  7627.000
##   98.5  6923.975  7202.50  7338.0  7444.25  7632.125
##   99.0  6930.975  7222.75  7357.0  7460.25  7643.025
##   99.5  6937.975  7241.50  7376.5  7476.25  7648.025
##  100.0  6955.900  7264.75  7395.5  7493.00  7654.025
##  100.5  6969.000  7284.75  7413.0  7507.25  7660.000
##  101.0  6984.825  7299.50  7432.0  7526.25  7665.000
##  101.5  6996.000  7321.00  7449.0  7539.00  7671.000
##  102.0  7007.900  7339.00  7466.0  7554.00  7680.100
##  102.5  7018.950  7360.50  7484.0  7568.25  7685.100
##  103.0  7031.975  7382.75  7502.0  7580.00  7692.000
##  103.5  7039.975  7408.50  7519.5  7593.00  7698.050
##  104.0  7057.900  7426.00  7537.0  7604.25  7706.025
##  104.5  7078.675  7452.75  7554.0  7618.25  7716.000
##  105.0  7109.450  7473.00  7573.5  7633.00  7720.000
##  105.5  7156.825  7495.75  7592.0  7646.00  7725.000
##  106.0  7172.950  7512.00  7609.5  7660.00  7730.000
##  106.5  7201.825  7539.75  7625.5  7674.00  7738.000
##  107.0  7223.900  7563.75  7645.0  7687.25  7745.025
##  107.5  7305.250  7595.00  7663.0  7700.25  7753.025
##  108.0  7354.600  7632.00  7682.0  7715.00  7762.025
##  108.5  7435.675  7670.75  7702.0  7730.25  7773.000
##  109.0  7567.000  7703.75  7726.0  7751.00  7785.025
##  109.5  7710.975  7750.00  7781.0  7820.00  8193.150
##  110.0  7735.975  7790.00  7837.0  7930.25  8608.150
##  110.5  7752.975  7823.00  7890.0  8027.50  8839.375
##  111.0  7769.975  7857.00  7942.5  8122.25  9032.650
##  111.5  7784.000  7892.00  7996.5  8205.00  9150.625
##  112.0  7798.000  7925.75  8048.0  8284.75  9247.300
##  112.5  7810.975  7959.00  8098.5  8358.25  9356.300
##  113.0  7823.000  7996.00  8151.5  8424.00  9409.050
##  113.5  7837.925  8032.00  8203.0  8488.25  9511.175
##  114.0  7848.975  8065.75  8251.0  8566.50  9540.025
##  114.5  7860.950  8100.75  8299.0  8635.25  9629.025
##  115.0  7873.950  8137.75  8351.0  8702.50  9744.250
##  115.5  7887.950  8177.00  8399.0  8758.00  9792.250
##  116.0  7899.000  8212.75  8450.0  8808.50  9869.200
##  116.5  7910.925  8250.00  8504.0  8872.25  9885.325
##  117.0  7922.875  8287.50  8550.0  8912.75  9922.125
##  117.5  7936.950  8326.00  8604.5  8965.50  9961.025
##  118.0  7952.925  8376.75  8656.5  9025.00  9988.150
##  118.5  7964.950  8418.00  8706.5  9072.25 10005.475
##  119.0  7992.850  8463.00  8762.5  9131.75 10050.000
##  119.5  8012.950  8500.75  8807.5  9192.50 10070.150
##  120.0  8027.875  8555.00  8855.5  9237.25 10086.075
##  120.5  8042.950  8597.25  8908.0  9287.25 10112.650
##  121.0  8057.900  8635.00  8959.0  9329.75 10155.450
##  121.5  8070.900  8667.75  9008.5  9384.25 10171.600
##  122.0  8087.900  8708.75  9060.5  9448.00 10188.700
##  122.5  8102.875  8759.00  9110.0  9487.50 10204.800
##  123.0  8120.925  8796.25  9159.0  9536.25 10233.500
##  123.5  8146.650  8844.50  9207.5  9593.25 10278.025
##  124.0  8159.700  8890.50  9258.5  9649.25 10325.225
##  124.5  8192.900  8942.00  9310.0  9700.25 10387.150
##  125.0  8234.525  8987.75  9360.5  9751.00 10407.250
##  125.5  8271.750  9042.00  9408.0  9789.25 10426.075
##  126.0  8295.925  9101.00  9459.0  9822.25 10446.125
##  126.5  8307.975  9139.00  9507.0  9856.25 10465.000
##  127.0  8324.950  9185.75  9561.0  9894.25 10499.400
##  127.5  8376.650  9222.75  9611.0  9945.75 10538.150
##  128.0  8395.725  9283.25  9654.0  9982.25 10563.225
##  128.5  8412.975  9333.50  9711.0 10023.25 10586.200
##  129.0  8432.900  9370.50  9762.0 10061.00 10613.100
##  129.5  8462.700  9431.00  9809.5 10101.25 10627.050
##  130.0  8528.350  9477.50  9864.0 10135.25 10641.075
##  130.5  8576.600  9533.50  9909.0 10172.50 10664.125
##  131.0  8642.275  9581.25  9953.0 10217.50 10676.100
##  131.5  8691.700  9638.50 10001.0 10259.50 10687.100
##  132.0  8753.675  9687.75 10051.5 10305.50 10702.050
##  132.5  8780.875  9743.50 10100.5 10340.25 10714.200
##  133.0  8825.000  9805.25 10146.5 10384.75 10733.125
##  133.5  8869.625  9852.75 10202.0 10432.00 10766.100
##  134.0  8913.750  9903.75 10250.5 10471.25 10788.225
##  134.5  8982.400  9966.00 10298.5 10511.00 10820.200
##  135.0  9045.450 10030.25 10351.0 10549.00 10833.225
##  135.5  9124.600 10099.50 10401.5 10586.75 10855.000
##  136.0  9194.975 10155.50 10453.0 10622.00 10875.050
##  136.5  9275.475 10213.75 10506.0 10658.25 10885.125
##  137.0  9294.850 10284.00 10552.5 10697.00 10904.100
##  137.5  9338.875 10359.50 10599.0 10734.50 10923.100
##  138.0  9528.375 10440.00 10645.0 10767.25 10948.125
##  138.5  9683.775 10526.75 10696.5 10807.25 10979.075
##  139.0  9853.850 10608.75 10750.0 10853.00 11005.000
##  139.5 10041.925 10698.75 10804.0 10906.25 11034.050
##  140.0 10331.875 10776.50 10866.0 10972.00 11138.525
##  140.5 10665.575 10839.75 10945.5 11045.25 11439.150
##  141.0 10796.975 10896.00 11012.5 11116.00 11667.775
##  141.5 10816.000 10935.00 11056.5 11190.25 11955.400
##  142.0 10830.925 10966.00 11094.0 11255.25 12068.425
##  142.5 10843.975 10995.00 11130.5 11322.25 12203.000
##  143.0 10855.975 11019.75 11168.5 11379.25 12342.225
summary(Rosalia_output, type='convergence') # Check model convergence
## Convergence check (watch for too many small p-values): 
##           p-value
## RateMean  0.00903
## Outlier 3 0.02243
## Outlier 5 0.03239
## RateVar   0.07826
## Outlier 2 0.07844
## Outlier 4 0.08759
## ULA-7272  0.09171
## ULA-9710  0.11318
## Outlier 1 0.15866
## ULA-9709  0.16391
## ULA-7269  0.23983
## ULA-7271  0.24596
## Outlier 6 0.35450
## Top-1     0.40730
## ULA-7270  0.46414
## Outlier 7 0.49709
summary(Rosalia_output, type='outliers') # Look at outlier probabilities
## Posterior outlier probability by date: 
##      Date OutlierProb
##     Top-1       0.003
##  ULA-7269       0.005
##  ULA-7270       0.006
##  ULA-9709       0.013
##  ULA-7271       0.010
##  ULA-9710       0.011
##  ULA-7272       0.008
plot(Rosalia_output,xlab='Age (cal years BP)',ylab='Depth (cm)',las=1)

Pikku

dirs<-c('Datations/')
Files<-list.files(dirs)

Pikku<-read.table(file='Datations/Pikku_AMS.txt',h=T)
Pikku_output = Bchronology(ages=Pikku$ages,ageSds=Pikku$ageSds,
calCurves=Pikku$calCurves,positions=Pikku$position,
positionThicknesses=Pikku$thickness,ids=Pikku$id,
predictPositions=seq(0,131,by=0.5))
summary(Pikku_output) # Default is for quantiles of ages at predictPosition values
## Quantiles of predicted ages by depth: 
##  Depth     2.5%     25%    50%     75%     97.5%
##    0.0  -68.000  -67.00  -66.0  -65.00   -64.000
##    0.5  -59.000  -42.25  -34.0  -12.00   251.000
##    1.0  -51.025  -19.00   -3.0   36.50   381.125
##    1.5  -43.025    5.00   28.0   83.00   455.100
##    2.0  -36.025   28.75   59.0  121.50   498.000
##    2.5  -28.050   51.75   90.0  166.00   522.025
##    3.0  -21.050   77.00  120.0  207.25   548.175
##    3.5  -12.025  102.00  151.0  236.25   581.050
##    4.0   -2.000  129.00  182.0  272.25   596.225
##    4.5    9.950  155.00  214.5  306.25   625.000
##    5.0   20.950  179.00  246.0  336.50   639.000
##    5.5   30.950  205.00  278.5  371.00   654.150
##    6.0   39.975  229.00  307.5  411.25   669.150
##    6.5   49.975  257.00  338.0  443.25   686.075
##    7.0   65.975  289.75  367.5  473.25   702.075
##    7.5   81.975  325.00  398.0  500.25   715.000
##    8.0   92.950  351.75  427.5  527.25   728.025
##    8.5  120.950  388.00  460.0  554.00   746.025
##    9.0  138.950  419.75  492.0  577.25   761.075
##    9.5  152.950  447.00  523.0  609.25   770.025
##   10.0  183.825  476.75  554.0  636.25   782.000
##   10.5  199.000  510.00  585.0  663.00   796.125
##   11.0  234.800  536.00  614.0  687.00   814.025
##   11.5  250.950  575.50  644.0  712.00   826.025
##   12.0  267.925  609.75  676.5  737.00   836.025
##   12.5  304.675  641.75  706.0  761.00   851.000
##   13.0  338.900  674.00  735.0  787.00   866.025
##   13.5  393.850  708.00  764.0  811.00   878.025
##   14.0  470.850  745.00  791.0  835.25   892.025
##   14.5  561.950  786.75  822.0  868.00   911.000
##   15.0  718.975  827.00  865.0  912.00  1053.100
##   15.5  818.975  879.00  926.0  972.25  1295.225
##   16.0  865.975  930.00  976.0 1037.25  1406.025
##   16.5  888.000  975.00 1026.0 1093.25  1480.025
##   17.0  913.000 1019.00 1076.0 1153.00  1537.175
##   17.5  933.950 1069.00 1127.0 1212.75  1589.125
##   18.0  950.000 1115.75 1178.0 1264.75  1634.025
##   18.5  967.000 1165.00 1228.5 1321.25  1671.025
##   19.0  988.975 1214.00 1282.0 1372.00  1696.150
##   19.5 1005.950 1265.00 1333.5 1420.00  1734.075
##   20.0 1027.825 1315.00 1385.0 1469.25  1756.050
##   20.5 1055.925 1362.75 1433.0 1517.00  1789.125
##   21.0 1084.875 1415.00 1485.0 1556.25  1809.150
##   21.5 1109.950 1466.00 1536.0 1606.00  1837.050
##   22.0 1135.950 1515.75 1586.0 1656.00  1854.025
##   22.5 1160.000 1569.75 1638.5 1702.25  1870.000
##   23.0 1223.700 1627.00 1691.0 1747.00  1888.000
##   23.5 1267.800 1679.75 1740.0 1795.50  1904.025
##   24.0 1346.950 1733.00 1792.0 1841.00  1921.025
##   24.5 1428.950 1791.00 1844.0 1885.00  1940.025
##   25.0 1553.925 1857.00 1895.0 1928.00  1974.000
##   25.5 1804.000 1920.00 1946.0 1975.00  2068.100
##   26.0 1916.975 1959.75 1987.0 2020.00  2225.100
##   26.5 1935.000 1985.00 2016.0 2067.00  2409.025
##   27.0 1949.975 2004.00 2044.0 2111.00  2479.425
##   27.5 1961.975 2025.00 2072.0 2150.50  2547.000
##   28.0 1969.975 2044.00 2099.0 2189.25  2579.200
##   28.5 1979.000 2065.00 2126.5 2224.00  2614.050
##   29.0 1990.000 2085.00 2152.0 2265.00  2663.075
##   29.5 1998.975 2109.00 2176.0 2302.25  2712.075
##   30.0 2008.000 2128.75 2204.0 2333.00  2750.075
##   30.5 2014.000 2146.75 2232.0 2365.00  2792.025
##   31.0 2024.900 2168.00 2260.0 2391.25  2840.025
##   31.5 2031.975 2191.75 2286.0 2417.25  2852.075
##   32.0 2039.950 2213.50 2310.0 2444.25  2864.100
##   32.5 2045.000 2234.75 2335.5 2476.25  2882.250
##   33.0 2053.975 2254.75 2360.0 2505.00  2893.150
##   33.5 2063.975 2276.00 2386.5 2535.00  2918.025
##   34.0 2075.900 2300.00 2413.0 2563.50  2946.150
##   34.5 2086.975 2320.25 2438.0 2588.00  2980.175
##   35.0 2100.975 2345.00 2463.0 2617.25  2996.075
##   35.5 2114.925 2365.75 2490.0 2640.50  3019.075
##   36.0 2129.950 2387.75 2516.0 2661.25  3032.050
##   36.5 2140.000 2410.00 2542.0 2690.00  3045.000
##   37.0 2145.000 2430.75 2568.0 2709.50  3059.025
##   37.5 2153.000 2452.75 2594.0 2743.50  3068.025
##   38.0 2165.875 2480.75 2620.0 2767.00  3078.025
##   38.5 2199.900 2505.00 2644.5 2790.25  3089.125
##   39.0 2208.925 2530.75 2669.0 2815.25  3098.150
##   39.5 2217.950 2556.75 2696.0 2844.50  3119.225
##   40.0 2240.975 2582.75 2721.5 2864.00  3136.050
##   40.5 2263.850 2605.00 2749.0 2883.25  3143.050
##   41.0 2273.850 2628.00 2780.0 2909.25  3157.050
##   41.5 2279.950 2653.75 2803.0 2934.00  3164.050
##   42.0 2287.975 2683.75 2829.5 2960.25  3173.075
##   42.5 2312.000 2708.00 2857.0 2982.00  3181.075
##   43.0 2324.950 2737.00 2880.5 3003.25  3195.000
##   43.5 2336.925 2764.75 2907.5 3019.50  3203.025
##   44.0 2362.650 2787.00 2936.0 3037.75  3214.000
##   44.5 2395.000 2819.75 2960.0 3055.00  3225.025
##   45.0 2426.650 2847.00 2985.5 3075.00  3236.025
##   45.5 2446.975 2877.00 3009.5 3098.50  3247.000
##   46.0 2495.950 2909.00 3039.0 3119.00  3254.025
##   46.5 2538.700 2943.50 3064.0 3140.00  3262.025
##   47.0 2563.900 2979.50 3088.5 3160.00  3271.000
##   47.5 2594.750 3010.75 3114.5 3180.00  3280.025
##   48.0 2641.600 3043.00 3141.0 3201.25  3291.025
##   48.5 2673.775 3079.75 3166.0 3224.00  3301.000
##   49.0 2705.925 3121.00 3193.0 3243.00  3312.025
##   49.5 2810.800 3162.00 3220.0 3265.00  3325.025
##   50.0 2974.000 3205.00 3247.5 3290.00  3347.000
##   50.5 3093.800 3242.75 3284.5 3328.25  3456.400
##   51.0 3191.875 3277.00 3320.0 3359.00  3599.325
##   51.5 3260.000 3314.75 3357.0 3403.00  3771.075
##   52.0 3279.975 3344.75 3387.5 3451.00  3835.100
##   52.5 3295.975 3370.00 3419.0 3491.25  3909.050
##   53.0 3308.950 3395.00 3449.0 3532.25  3951.025
##   53.5 3320.000 3422.75 3481.0 3568.00  3990.475
##   54.0 3330.000 3449.75 3511.5 3608.25  4034.025
##   54.5 3340.975 3473.00 3543.0 3645.75  4060.125
##   55.0 3353.000 3494.75 3576.0 3683.25  4101.150
##   55.5 3364.975 3519.75 3610.0 3728.25  4132.100
##   56.0 3376.000 3543.00 3642.0 3767.00  4150.025
##   56.5 3387.975 3568.00 3671.0 3798.25  4168.000
##   57.0 3398.950 3592.00 3701.0 3825.25  4183.000
##   57.5 3410.975 3618.75 3734.0 3860.00  4199.050
##   58.0 3422.925 3645.75 3767.5 3889.25  4216.100
##   58.5 3435.000 3674.00 3801.0 3922.25  4234.100
##   59.0 3448.950 3698.75 3831.5 3954.00  4255.100
##   59.5 3459.000 3723.00 3864.0 3986.50  4282.050
##   60.0 3468.975 3754.25 3895.0 4027.25  4299.050
##   60.5 3479.925 3778.75 3926.0 4057.00  4314.025
##   61.0 3494.875 3810.75 3957.0 4082.25  4329.000
##   61.5 3512.950 3839.75 3991.0 4110.25  4344.000
##   62.0 3525.925 3869.75 4020.5 4140.00  4359.025
##   62.5 3548.900 3906.00 4051.0 4168.00  4377.000
##   63.0 3579.950 3945.25 4081.5 4191.00  4388.025
##   63.5 3613.000 3977.50 4110.5 4217.00  4405.000
##   64.0 3624.975 4009.00 4143.0 4242.50  4420.050
##   64.5 3646.825 4040.00 4173.0 4264.00  4432.050
##   65.0 3663.850 4072.00 4203.5 4292.25  4449.025
##   65.5 3682.000 4106.25 4234.0 4316.00  4465.000
##   66.0 3711.625 4145.75 4264.5 4343.25  4477.050
##   66.5 3739.750 4184.50 4295.0 4368.00  4488.075
##   67.0 3789.950 4224.00 4328.5 4394.25  4500.025
##   67.5 3827.850 4267.00 4362.5 4422.25  4514.000
##   68.0 3898.325 4312.75 4395.0 4447.00  4525.050
##   68.5 3976.900 4364.00 4424.0 4477.00  4540.000
##   69.0 4095.625 4413.00 4453.5 4507.00  4559.000
##   69.5 4327.950 4460.00 4511.0 4548.00  4761.025
##   70.0 4460.975 4510.00 4557.5 4601.00  4920.250
##   70.5 4480.000 4547.00 4595.0 4653.00  5088.125
##   71.0 4493.975 4573.00 4631.0 4705.00  5171.050
##   71.5 4509.000 4601.00 4667.0 4764.25  5256.275
##   72.0 4521.950 4631.00 4698.5 4807.25  5324.350
##   72.5 4539.950 4662.00 4733.0 4852.00  5384.125
##   73.0 4551.775 4689.75 4767.0 4891.00  5410.175
##   73.5 4563.000 4720.00 4802.0 4937.00  5451.225
##   74.0 4571.975 4748.00 4836.0 4981.00  5477.000
##   74.5 4579.975 4775.00 4868.5 5016.00  5497.025
##   75.0 4592.950 4803.25 4902.0 5060.00  5544.075
##   75.5 4609.900 4824.00 4935.0 5094.00  5573.225
##   76.0 4620.975 4856.50 4967.0 5128.25  5604.075
##   76.5 4632.975 4884.00 4999.0 5169.50  5616.175
##   77.0 4643.000 4913.00 5033.0 5201.00  5637.075
##   77.5 4650.975 4947.75 5067.5 5229.25  5659.050
##   78.0 4666.850 4980.75 5105.0 5260.25  5674.000
##   78.5 4680.950 5015.00 5139.0 5293.25  5707.050
##   79.0 4696.825 5042.75 5173.0 5327.00  5718.025
##   79.5 4712.925 5074.75 5204.0 5363.25  5729.000
##   80.0 4752.450 5104.75 5235.0 5390.00  5745.125
##   80.5 4778.600 5133.00 5271.0 5416.00  5755.075
##   81.0 4802.700 5161.50 5302.0 5443.00  5776.050
##   81.5 4822.000 5193.00 5336.5 5470.50  5790.025
##   82.0 4839.950 5229.75 5370.5 5503.00  5799.025
##   82.5 4853.000 5264.00 5405.5 5525.25  5808.025
##   83.0 4865.975 5305.00 5439.0 5562.00  5819.025
##   83.5 4888.975 5334.00 5473.0 5589.75  5829.025
##   84.0 4912.975 5362.00 5504.0 5622.25  5841.025
##   84.5 4936.675 5396.75 5538.0 5653.00  5853.000
##   85.0 4967.850 5429.50 5574.0 5680.25  5864.025
##   85.5 5008.000 5466.00 5606.0 5712.25  5877.000
##   86.0 5049.550 5509.00 5640.0 5735.00  5889.050
##   86.5 5074.925 5546.00 5673.0 5759.00  5901.025
##   87.0 5124.675 5583.00 5706.0 5784.25  5909.050
##   87.5 5160.775 5625.75 5738.0 5809.25  5915.100
##   88.0 5189.825 5671.75 5772.0 5837.00  5924.050
##   88.5 5259.000 5718.75 5805.0 5862.00  5936.000
##   89.0 5299.950 5763.75 5840.0 5885.00  5947.000
##   89.5 5399.950 5811.00 5873.0 5910.00  5960.000
##   90.0 5494.775 5861.75 5909.0 5937.00  5977.000
##   90.5 5707.825 5913.00 5941.0 5975.00  6093.200
##   91.0 5848.000 5949.00 5979.0 6017.25  6338.425
##   91.5 5940.000 5987.75 6018.0 6071.00  6456.025
##   92.0 5958.000 6015.00 6058.5 6126.25  6569.200
##   92.5 5971.975 6042.00 6097.0 6182.25  6656.000
##   93.0 5981.975 6068.00 6135.0 6235.25  6706.075
##   93.5 5996.975 6100.00 6172.0 6292.00  6767.075
##   94.0 6011.950 6128.50 6207.0 6337.00  6806.025
##   94.5 6022.000 6160.75 6243.0 6383.00  6832.225
##   95.0 6033.950 6185.50 6277.5 6417.00  6875.025
##   95.5 6042.000 6212.75 6313.5 6459.00  6896.300
##   96.0 6055.900 6243.00 6350.0 6493.25  6934.300
##   96.5 6066.950 6272.00 6387.0 6536.25  6973.150
##   97.0 6084.975 6302.75 6426.0 6574.25  6988.650
##   97.5 6094.000 6326.75 6464.0 6606.50  7032.125
##   98.0 6115.725 6355.75 6500.0 6643.00  7053.050
##   98.5 6129.000 6385.00 6535.0 6683.50  7073.000
##   99.0 6143.950 6418.50 6570.0 6709.25  7088.150
##   99.5 6161.850 6448.75 6608.0 6744.00  7112.050
##  100.0 6183.625 6489.00 6644.0 6778.00  7127.025
##  100.5 6197.975 6525.75 6682.0 6803.25  7154.075
##  101.0 6213.850 6565.25 6716.0 6837.75  7170.050
##  101.5 6227.950 6591.75 6753.0 6879.50  7182.025
##  102.0 6248.850 6629.00 6790.0 6909.75  7195.000
##  102.5 6262.975 6663.25 6824.0 6943.00  7209.075
##  103.0 6287.800 6704.75 6860.0 6973.00  7224.025
##  103.5 6303.000 6741.00 6896.5 7002.00  7239.075
##  104.0 6318.950 6782.00 6934.0 7032.00  7252.000
##  104.5 6338.975 6823.75 6972.5 7063.25  7263.025
##  105.0 6371.000 6864.75 7008.0 7095.25  7278.025
##  105.5 6395.975 6901.00 7046.0 7126.25  7292.000
##  106.0 6419.950 6943.75 7083.0 7153.00  7305.000
##  106.5 6456.925 6988.00 7120.0 7186.00  7319.000
##  107.0 6497.725 7035.50 7157.0 7219.00  7330.050
##  107.5 6555.700 7084.00 7193.0 7248.00  7344.000
##  108.0 6628.700 7141.50 7230.0 7279.00  7357.000
##  108.5 6720.950 7199.00 7268.0 7308.00  7372.000
##  109.0 6802.750 7260.00 7307.0 7336.00  7389.000
##  109.5 7080.900 7314.00 7342.5 7373.00  7413.025
##  110.0 7340.000 7375.00 7409.0 7444.00  7683.125
##  110.5 7366.975 7425.00 7463.0 7534.00  8055.225
##  111.0 7387.975 7468.00 7517.0 7619.50  8225.325
##  111.5 7405.000 7510.00 7570.5 7690.75  8385.200
##  112.0 7419.975 7552.00 7624.0 7768.00  8434.700
##  112.5 7434.975 7590.50 7678.0 7837.25  8488.275
##  113.0 7446.950 7634.75 7731.0 7904.50  8569.075
##  113.5 7460.925 7674.50 7783.0 7975.00  8659.050
##  114.0 7476.925 7718.75 7838.0 8037.25  8701.200
##  114.5 7493.950 7762.75 7893.0 8099.75  8741.075
##  115.0 7509.975 7799.50 7946.5 8163.00  8776.575
##  115.5 7530.875 7844.75 8001.0 8227.75  8817.125
##  116.0 7542.000 7891.00 8051.5 8283.25  8858.075
##  116.5 7568.925 7935.00 8104.0 8333.50  8896.025
##  117.0 7616.975 8000.75 8156.5 8386.50  8916.100
##  117.5 7635.950 8053.50 8211.0 8434.00  8938.325
##  118.0 7653.925 8091.25 8264.0 8485.25  8975.075
##  118.5 7677.875 8121.75 8316.0 8532.25  9004.050
##  119.0 7703.950 8171.00 8371.0 8573.50  9035.025
##  119.5 7739.975 8233.00 8422.0 8612.50  9058.025
##  120.0 7771.975 8287.50 8477.0 8657.75  9081.100
##  120.5 7800.875 8332.75 8528.5 8705.50  9100.025
##  121.0 7829.850 8384.00 8583.5 8749.50  9120.000
##  121.5 7865.925 8427.75 8635.0 8794.00  9139.050
##  122.0 7916.525 8471.50 8690.0 8840.25  9158.050
##  122.5 7954.850 8531.00 8743.0 8886.50  9180.075
##  123.0 8013.700 8591.75 8793.0 8928.25  9199.025
##  123.5 8040.575 8644.00 8845.0 8975.00  9220.025
##  124.0 8066.975 8706.75 8898.0 9021.50  9240.025
##  124.5 8152.450 8782.50 8954.0 9065.00  9261.050
##  125.0 8184.000 8832.00 9004.5 9108.00  9280.075
##  125.5 8215.800 8890.75 9059.0 9152.00  9300.100
##  126.0 8319.150 8954.00 9111.5 9194.00  9326.100
##  126.5 8410.875 9031.75 9165.0 9238.00  9347.000
##  127.0 8511.975 9107.75 9220.0 9278.00  9374.025
##  127.5 8676.175 9186.75 9275.0 9325.00  9412.000
##  128.0 8903.300 9265.00 9328.0 9380.00  9490.450
##  128.5 9161.975 9326.00 9374.5 9428.25  9705.075
##  129.0 9318.000 9369.00 9419.0 9488.00  9906.150
##  129.5 9331.000 9394.75 9451.0 9549.25 10107.125
##  130.0 9338.000 9413.00 9477.0 9599.25 10253.200
##  130.5 9346.950 9429.00 9506.0 9664.00 10346.300
##  131.0 9352.975 9444.00 9537.5 9705.25 10454.075
summary(Pikku_output, type='convergence') # Check model convergence
## Convergence check (watch for too many small p-values): 
##           p-value
## ULA-7908  0.00166
## Outlier 4 0.01238
## Outlier 3 0.07844
## Outlier 5 0.11672
## Outlier 7 0.15866
## Outlier 2 0.16063
## ULA-7296  0.16851
## Top-1     0.17551
## Outlier 1 0.21691
## ULA-7295  0.21768
## Outlier 8 0.34768
## ULA-7297  0.35543
## Outlier 6 0.36157
## RateVar   0.39559
## ULA-9712  0.47179
## RateMean  0.48422
## ULA-7298  0.49252
## ULA-9711  0.49640
summary(Pikku_output, type='outliers') # Look at outlier probabilities
## Posterior outlier probability by date: 
##      Date OutlierProb
##     Top-1       0.006
##  ULA-7908       0.014
##  ULA-7295       0.008
##  ULA-7296       0.006
##  ULA-9711       0.006
##  ULA-7297       0.010
##  ULA-9712       0.005
##  ULA-7298       0.013
plot(Pikku_output,xlab='Age (cal years BP)',ylab='Depth (cm)',las=1)

Charly

dirs<-c('Datations/')
Files<-list.files(dirs)

Charly<-read.table(file='Datations/Charly_AMS.txt',h=T)
Charly_output = Bchronology(ages=Charly$ages,ageSds=Charly$ageSds,
calCurves=Charly$calCurves,positions=Charly$position,
positionThicknesses=Charly$thickness,ids=Charly$id,
predictPositions=seq(0,144,by=0.5))
summary(Charly_output) # Default is for quantiles of ages at predictPosition values
## Quantiles of predicted ages by depth: 
##  Depth     2.5%     25%    50%     75%    97.5%
##    0.0  -68.000  -66.00  -66.0  -65.00  -64.000
##    0.5  -56.000  -37.00  -32.0  -19.00  251.175
##    1.0  -45.000   -8.00    1.0   27.00  393.050
##    1.5  -35.000   20.00   35.0   73.00  459.125
##    2.0  -25.025   49.00   68.0  120.25  531.050
##    2.5  -15.025   77.00  102.0  166.25  570.075
##    3.0   -5.025  106.00  135.0  209.50  589.100
##    3.5    4.975  136.00  169.0  251.25  616.000
##    4.0   14.975  166.00  202.0  293.25  651.075
##    4.5   24.975  195.00  235.0  330.00  668.125
##    5.0   34.975  227.00  269.0  369.25  686.150
##    5.5   44.975  256.00  302.0  402.25  708.075
##    6.0   57.925  283.00  336.0  439.25  736.050
##    6.5   67.925  310.75  369.0  460.25  748.300
##    7.0   86.875  341.75  403.0  490.00  772.025
##    7.5  103.975  369.75  436.0  516.25  783.050
##    8.0  117.000  403.75  469.0  542.25  794.000
##    8.5  136.900  435.00  502.0  568.25  811.050
##    9.0  152.000  471.75  535.0  596.25  821.025
##    9.5  168.950  499.00  568.0  626.00  831.000
##   10.0  191.875  531.75  601.0  649.25  840.000
##   10.5  208.900  561.75  634.0  674.25  852.000
##   11.0  241.700  594.75  667.0  702.25  862.000
##   11.5  264.950  635.75  700.0  734.00  872.050
##   12.0  289.000  670.75  733.5  767.25  883.025
##   12.5  330.625  709.00  767.0  802.00  893.025
##   13.0  359.975  752.75  801.0  831.00  904.000
##   13.5  394.000  798.00  834.0  862.00  916.000
##   14.0  464.625  840.75  869.0  892.00  929.000
##   14.5  619.950  881.00  903.0  923.00  947.000
##   15.0  808.975  921.00  937.5  959.00 1053.075
##   15.5  933.000  958.00  978.0 1002.25 1254.100
##   16.0  958.975  994.00 1017.0 1048.00 1345.000
##   16.5  973.000 1031.00 1056.0 1088.00 1393.025
##   17.0  988.000 1069.00 1096.0 1130.00 1462.125
##   17.5 1001.000 1107.00 1135.5 1169.00 1497.050
##   18.0 1015.000 1145.00 1174.5 1209.25 1521.025
##   18.5 1028.975 1183.75 1214.0 1249.00 1549.050
##   19.0 1043.000 1221.00 1253.5 1289.00 1577.175
##   19.5 1058.000 1259.00 1292.0 1329.00 1613.050
##   20.0 1071.000 1296.00 1331.5 1369.00 1626.050
##   20.5 1086.975 1334.00 1370.5 1407.00 1639.025
##   21.0 1104.000 1371.00 1410.0 1447.25 1655.000
##   21.5 1119.975 1409.00 1450.0 1489.25 1671.025
##   22.0 1139.975 1448.75 1490.0 1529.25 1687.025
##   22.5 1160.950 1486.75 1530.0 1568.00 1703.000
##   23.0 1185.850 1525.00 1568.0 1605.00 1719.000
##   23.5 1201.975 1564.00 1606.0 1642.00 1736.025
##   24.0 1247.900 1603.00 1645.0 1679.25 1752.025
##   24.5 1327.800 1643.00 1684.0 1712.00 1776.025
##   25.0 1436.875 1690.75 1722.0 1749.00 1804.000
##   25.5 1642.775 1731.00 1753.0 1783.00 1836.025
##   26.0 1725.000 1748.75 1770.0 1799.00 1851.025
##   26.5 1730.000 1754.00 1777.0 1805.00 1860.000
##   27.0 1734.000 1759.00 1783.0 1810.00 1870.100
##   27.5 1738.975 1764.00 1788.0 1815.25 1876.000
##   28.0 1742.975 1769.00 1792.0 1821.00 1882.000
##   28.5 1745.000 1774.00 1797.0 1825.00 1885.025
##   29.0 1748.000 1778.00 1802.0 1830.00 1891.025
##   29.5 1751.975 1783.00 1806.0 1833.00 1899.025
##   30.0 1754.975 1787.00 1810.5 1837.25 1901.025
##   30.5 1758.000 1791.00 1815.0 1842.25 1906.025
##   31.0 1761.000 1796.00 1819.0 1847.00 1907.050
##   31.5 1763.000 1800.75 1824.0 1852.00 1912.000
##   32.0 1765.000 1805.00 1829.0 1856.25 1915.000
##   32.5 1767.000 1810.00 1834.0 1862.00 1917.000
##   33.0 1770.000 1815.00 1838.0 1865.00 1919.000
##   33.5 1772.975 1820.00 1842.0 1869.00 1922.000
##   34.0 1773.975 1824.00 1846.0 1873.00 1924.025
##   34.5 1776.000 1829.00 1851.0 1877.00 1929.000
##   35.0 1778.000 1833.00 1855.0 1880.25 1932.000
##   35.5 1780.000 1838.00 1859.0 1885.00 1935.025
##   36.0 1782.975 1842.00 1864.0 1889.00 1938.000
##   36.5 1785.000 1847.00 1868.0 1892.25 1940.000
##   37.0 1789.975 1851.00 1872.5 1896.25 1942.000
##   37.5 1793.000 1856.00 1877.0 1901.00 1944.000
##   38.0 1796.950 1860.00 1882.0 1905.00 1946.025
##   38.5 1800.000 1865.00 1886.0 1909.00 1950.000
##   39.0 1803.925 1869.00 1890.0 1912.00 1953.025
##   39.5 1807.975 1873.00 1894.0 1916.00 1958.000
##   40.0 1811.000 1877.00 1898.5 1920.00 1961.000
##   40.5 1816.975 1883.00 1903.0 1924.00 1964.000
##   41.0 1822.000 1887.00 1908.0 1928.00 1969.000
##   41.5 1828.950 1892.00 1913.0 1932.00 1972.000
##   42.0 1838.000 1897.00 1917.0 1938.00 1975.000
##   42.5 1847.975 1901.75 1922.0 1942.00 1979.000
##   43.0 1860.000 1909.00 1930.0 1951.00 1988.000
##   43.5 1877.950 1919.00 1938.0 1962.00 2023.025
##   44.0 1894.000 1927.75 1948.0 1974.00 2071.050
##   44.5 1904.000 1940.00 1960.0 1988.00 2100.075
##   45.0 1914.000 1950.00 1974.0 2001.00 2135.025
##   45.5 1919.975 1961.00 1983.5 2013.00 2145.025
##   46.0 1925.000 1971.00 1995.0 2026.00 2153.125
##   46.5 1931.000 1982.00 2005.0 2037.00 2164.025
##   47.0 1937.000 1991.00 2016.0 2049.00 2179.000
##   47.5 1942.000 2000.00 2026.0 2063.00 2188.000
##   48.0 1948.875 2010.00 2038.0 2075.00 2198.000
##   48.5 1954.925 2019.00 2049.0 2086.00 2206.000
##   49.0 1959.000 2027.00 2061.0 2097.00 2214.025
##   49.5 1962.000 2036.00 2073.0 2107.00 2224.075
##   50.0 1966.975 2044.00 2084.0 2119.00 2232.000
##   50.5 1970.950 2053.00 2095.0 2129.00 2240.000
##   51.0 1975.925 2061.00 2107.0 2139.00 2245.025
##   51.5 1982.800 2069.00 2118.0 2150.00 2253.000
##   52.0 1986.800 2079.00 2129.0 2161.00 2258.025
##   52.5 1990.800 2088.00 2141.0 2171.00 2268.000
##   53.0 1995.975 2097.00 2152.0 2181.25 2271.050
##   53.5 2002.925 2107.00 2163.0 2193.00 2276.000
##   54.0 2008.950 2116.00 2174.0 2204.00 2281.050
##   54.5 2019.975 2126.00 2187.0 2215.00 2284.075
##   55.0 2035.000 2136.00 2199.0 2226.00 2288.050
##   55.5 2042.975 2145.00 2212.0 2237.00 2293.025
##   56.0 2050.000 2155.00 2224.0 2249.00 2296.025
##   56.5 2055.975 2164.75 2237.0 2261.00 2301.000
##   57.0 2069.000 2173.00 2250.0 2272.00 2307.000
##   57.5 2092.000 2183.75 2263.0 2284.00 2312.000
##   58.0 2101.925 2194.75 2275.0 2294.00 2315.050
##   58.5 2131.900 2205.00 2288.0 2305.00 2321.025
##   59.0 2164.950 2219.00 2303.0 2316.00 2331.000
##   59.5 2184.975 2267.00 2319.0 2338.00 2484.150
##   60.0 2218.975 2322.00 2351.0 2386.25 2740.725
##   60.5 2251.975 2351.00 2392.0 2439.00 2891.175
##   61.0 2277.950 2375.00 2432.0 2488.00 2983.250
##   61.5 2296.000 2405.00 2472.5 2544.50 3107.275
##   62.0 2320.950 2440.75 2514.0 2605.25 3178.350
##   62.5 2344.975 2472.00 2553.0 2654.00 3242.125
##   63.0 2366.950 2504.00 2594.0 2700.25 3296.025
##   63.5 2380.975 2542.00 2634.0 2747.25 3332.425
##   64.0 2394.975 2578.00 2673.5 2791.25 3387.225
##   64.5 2407.950 2613.75 2713.0 2838.00 3414.050
##   65.0 2420.950 2650.75 2754.0 2884.25 3461.150
##   65.5 2437.950 2682.75 2793.5 2930.25 3486.150
##   66.0 2452.900 2714.75 2833.0 2970.75 3507.325
##   66.5 2466.875 2747.00 2873.0 3010.00 3534.050
##   67.0 2479.800 2782.00 2913.0 3059.00 3549.025
##   67.5 2492.925 2811.00 2953.0 3097.25 3565.350
##   68.0 2513.750 2852.00 2994.0 3135.00 3592.200
##   68.5 2536.950 2887.00 3036.0 3171.25 3611.225
##   69.0 2567.350 2922.25 3077.5 3210.50 3622.300
##   69.5 2581.975 2961.00 3118.0 3246.50 3633.300
##   70.0 2598.950 2995.00 3158.0 3281.25 3656.050
##   70.5 2611.950 3034.75 3200.0 3318.50 3669.000
##   71.0 2634.950 3083.00 3241.0 3355.25 3682.100
##   71.5 2660.900 3117.50 3280.0 3387.25 3698.050
##   72.0 2683.950 3153.25 3319.5 3420.00 3710.025
##   72.5 2704.925 3183.50 3360.0 3455.00 3723.025
##   73.0 2725.875 3227.50 3399.0 3492.25 3736.025
##   73.5 2761.975 3276.00 3440.0 3526.25 3746.025
##   74.0 2784.975 3318.75 3481.5 3560.00 3757.025
##   74.5 2804.900 3364.25 3521.0 3598.00 3770.050
##   75.0 2874.650 3414.75 3563.5 3635.00 3781.000
##   75.5 2914.825 3471.75 3606.0 3673.00 3794.025
##   76.0 2981.650 3528.00 3645.5 3708.00 3810.075
##   76.5 3089.825 3586.00 3687.0 3743.25 3823.025
##   77.0 3162.975 3642.00 3728.0 3782.00 3842.000
##   77.5 3302.900 3709.00 3772.0 3819.00 3870.000
##   78.0 3469.900 3768.00 3822.0 3856.00 3938.000
##   78.5 3686.875 3817.00 3856.0 3885.25 4081.100
##   79.0 3758.950 3856.00 3885.0 3924.00 4206.700
##   79.5 3779.975 3876.75 3911.0 3963.25 4293.350
##   80.0 3800.975 3893.75 3937.0 4003.25 4385.075
##   80.5 3812.975 3910.75 3961.0 4044.00 4492.150
##   81.0 3825.975 3928.75 3986.0 4084.25 4551.750
##   81.5 3838.975 3945.00 4010.0 4119.00 4600.325
##   82.0 3850.875 3963.00 4032.5 4152.00 4633.175
##   82.5 3858.975 3982.00 4057.0 4185.50 4682.000
##   83.0 3868.000 4003.75 4081.0 4210.25 4710.275
##   83.5 3871.950 4023.00 4106.0 4239.25 4744.050
##   84.0 3881.950 4041.75 4129.0 4268.00 4757.100
##   84.5 3888.950 4059.75 4153.5 4298.00 4763.150
##   85.0 3899.975 4080.75 4177.0 4317.50 4793.125
##   85.5 3908.900 4103.75 4200.0 4346.50 4811.075
##   86.0 3914.925 4120.00 4224.0 4366.25 4821.075
##   86.5 3921.000 4141.00 4247.0 4391.00 4831.050
##   87.0 3926.000 4160.00 4271.0 4409.00 4842.225
##   87.5 3936.875 4181.75 4294.0 4436.00 4859.050
##   88.0 3948.950 4203.00 4318.0 4458.50 4866.000
##   88.5 3954.925 4219.00 4343.0 4481.25 4887.000
##   89.0 3961.975 4239.75 4366.0 4503.75 4896.125
##   89.5 3973.950 4256.25 4386.0 4530.00 4905.000
##   90.0 3981.925 4274.00 4410.0 4562.00 4917.000
##   90.5 3988.900 4294.75 4433.0 4582.25 4927.000
##   91.0 3994.900 4317.25 4455.0 4601.00 4933.075
##   91.5 4001.950 4336.50 4478.0 4625.25 4958.075
##   92.0 4007.925 4355.25 4502.0 4646.25 4967.075
##   92.5 4014.950 4370.75 4525.0 4664.25 4979.100
##   93.0 4021.950 4386.00 4548.0 4681.25 4988.100
##   93.5 4033.900 4401.00 4570.5 4699.00 5000.175
##   94.0 4050.000 4414.75 4595.0 4719.50 5017.025
##   94.5 4070.000 4440.00 4618.5 4741.75 5027.025
##   95.0 4081.975 4465.50 4642.0 4761.00 5038.025
##   95.5 4089.000 4484.25 4665.0 4776.50 5047.000
##   96.0 4113.925 4506.50 4687.0 4792.50 5056.025
##   96.5 4132.875 4533.00 4710.5 4809.50 5064.025
##   97.0 4149.975 4554.00 4734.0 4826.00 5072.000
##   97.5 4169.800 4571.50 4757.0 4844.00 5080.150
##   98.0 4190.925 4592.75 4780.0 4867.00 5091.125
##   98.5 4201.950 4616.50 4799.5 4887.00 5104.050
##   99.0 4224.975 4646.25 4822.0 4907.00 5115.000
##   99.5 4238.000 4674.75 4846.0 4929.25 5124.025
##  100.0 4257.925 4700.75 4868.5 4952.00 5135.025
##  100.5 4277.925 4728.00 4887.5 4975.25 5144.000
##  101.0 4309.825 4759.00 4912.0 4996.25 5148.025
##  101.5 4334.950 4785.75 4935.0 5018.00 5153.100
##  102.0 4358.600 4816.75 4959.5 5040.25 5163.000
##  102.5 4407.800 4847.00 4984.0 5060.25 5170.050
##  103.0 4453.925 4883.75 5007.5 5084.00 5178.100
##  103.5 4503.975 4915.75 5035.0 5106.25 5190.000
##  104.0 4551.975 4949.00 5059.5 5129.00 5200.025
##  104.5 4628.875 4976.00 5086.0 5151.25 5212.000
##  105.0 4670.875 5005.75 5110.0 5173.00 5224.000
##  105.5 4797.925 5038.00 5139.5 5194.25 5241.000
##  106.0 4964.875 5085.00 5178.0 5221.00 5263.025
##  106.5 5051.000 5151.75 5228.0 5269.25 5560.300
##  107.0 5074.000 5199.75 5268.0 5317.00 5880.000
##  107.5 5093.975 5228.00 5300.0 5364.00 6026.300
##  108.0 5112.000 5253.75 5330.0 5421.25 6121.500
##  108.5 5135.000 5278.75 5361.5 5479.50 6224.250
##  109.0 5153.000 5304.00 5395.0 5529.25 6325.250
##  109.5 5169.950 5331.00 5429.0 5579.00 6359.125
##  110.0 5183.950 5353.75 5464.5 5626.00 6409.150
##  110.5 5199.950 5377.00 5497.5 5673.00 6480.475
##  111.0 5212.950 5403.00 5530.0 5725.25 6523.450
##  111.5 5221.950 5430.00 5564.0 5767.25 6546.300
##  112.0 5232.000 5454.75 5595.5 5801.25 6575.225
##  112.5 5244.975 5476.75 5629.0 5855.25 6623.300
##  113.0 5257.875 5502.75 5659.0 5884.25 6669.900
##  113.5 5266.925 5524.50 5692.5 5930.00 6698.725
##  114.0 5276.925 5551.75 5725.5 5962.50 6748.125
##  114.5 5286.950 5579.75 5759.0 6002.50 6796.575
##  115.0 5299.925 5608.00 5790.0 6037.50 6821.675
##  115.5 5316.825 5628.00 5821.0 6073.00 6837.625
##  116.0 5323.925 5656.00 5853.5 6115.00 6875.100
##  116.5 5327.950 5681.50 5888.0 6149.75 6889.075
##  117.0 5338.925 5703.75 5927.0 6198.25 6912.200
##  117.5 5348.900 5730.75 5960.0 6225.00 6939.225
##  118.0 5373.600 5753.50 5994.5 6253.00 6960.025
##  118.5 5389.825 5780.50 6029.0 6294.00 6973.000
##  119.0 5400.825 5806.75 6059.5 6329.50 6988.500
##  119.5 5410.975 5840.75 6094.0 6359.25 7021.100
##  120.0 5428.975 5872.25 6127.0 6387.25 7043.300
##  120.5 5448.900 5894.75 6159.5 6419.25 7076.050
##  121.0 5458.850 5927.50 6193.0 6448.50 7090.075
##  121.5 5468.825 5957.25 6225.0 6476.00 7119.725
##  122.0 5483.900 5988.75 6259.0 6510.50 7158.075
##  122.5 5491.975 6021.25 6289.5 6540.25 7175.175
##  123.0 5501.000 6047.50 6322.5 6575.00 7192.000
##  123.5 5512.900 6074.25 6356.0 6607.25 7225.225
##  124.0 5533.875 6098.75 6388.0 6643.75 7243.100
##  124.5 5552.975 6132.50 6422.5 6673.00 7256.125
##  125.0 5571.750 6162.00 6456.0 6710.00 7265.000
##  125.5 5585.000 6205.25 6488.0 6743.00 7269.125
##  126.0 5597.875 6241.50 6523.0 6772.75 7280.075
##  126.5 5610.750 6270.50 6557.0 6799.25 7292.150
##  127.0 5623.950 6298.75 6589.0 6826.00 7306.150
##  127.5 5640.950 6338.75 6623.0 6851.00 7314.150
##  128.0 5681.650 6373.50 6655.0 6877.25 7329.050
##  128.5 5704.900 6401.00 6689.5 6904.25 7338.050
##  129.0 5714.925 6428.25 6721.5 6932.00 7347.050
##  129.5 5744.550 6455.25 6755.0 6964.25 7355.050
##  130.0 5756.625 6481.75 6786.0 6984.25 7364.025
##  130.5 5773.825 6525.00 6818.0 7015.25 7376.050
##  131.0 5813.000 6555.50 6849.0 7044.25 7386.175
##  131.5 5834.800 6579.50 6883.0 7072.00 7395.150
##  132.0 5866.675 6616.00 6917.0 7100.25 7409.000
##  132.5 5893.850 6652.50 6950.0 7127.25 7421.050
##  133.0 5919.750 6706.75 6984.5 7152.50 7426.150
##  133.5 5939.875 6744.00 7017.5 7180.00 7433.200
##  134.0 5995.200 6790.00 7049.5 7207.00 7449.025
##  134.5 6078.775 6834.75 7082.0 7230.25 7455.000
##  135.0 6131.750 6878.00 7118.0 7256.00 7460.025
##  135.5 6154.975 6914.75 7151.5 7282.25 7468.050
##  136.0 6198.675 6950.75 7185.0 7305.25 7477.025
##  136.5 6273.850 7001.75 7220.0 7328.25 7485.025
##  137.0 6303.825 7050.25 7254.0 7352.00 7495.025
##  137.5 6364.125 7094.75 7287.0 7377.00 7502.025
##  138.0 6409.775 7147.50 7320.0 7401.00 7513.025
##  138.5 6450.000 7196.75 7354.0 7428.00 7525.000
##  139.0 6521.725 7260.00 7388.0 7453.25 7535.000
##  139.5 6573.850 7318.75 7424.0 7477.00 7544.025
##  140.0 6689.950 7382.75 7459.0 7502.00 7556.025
##  140.5 6895.825 7443.00 7496.0 7529.25 7573.025
##  141.0 7175.800 7497.00 7531.0 7564.00 7651.300
##  141.5 7403.600 7531.00 7564.0 7595.00 7866.975
##  142.0 7521.000 7560.00 7591.0 7645.25 8104.375
##  142.5 7526.975 7575.00 7616.0 7706.00 8267.500
##  143.0 7530.000 7585.00 7638.5 7764.00 8374.075
##  143.5 7533.000 7596.00 7663.5 7815.00 8406.250
##  144.0 7536.000 7604.00 7686.0 7854.75 8521.200
summary(Charly_output, type='convergence') # Check model convergence
## Convergence check (watch for too many small p-values): 
##           p-value
## RateVar   0.00055
## RateMean  0.00206
## Outlier 4 0.00389
## Outlier 7 0.00389
## ULA-9715  0.01762
## Outlier 2 0.02243
## ULA-7907  0.02904
## Top-1     0.09001
## ULA-7299  0.12418
## ULA-7302  0.16159
## Outlier 1 0.27482
## Outlier 6 0.29694
## ULA-7301  0.32420
## ULA-7300  0.34252
## ULA-9714  0.37539
## Outlier 3 0.42540
## Outlier 5 0.42540
## Outlier 8 0.42872
summary(Charly_output, type='outliers') # Look at outlier probabilities
## Posterior outlier probability by date: 
##      Date OutlierProb
##     Top-1       0.007
##  ULA-7907       0.006
##  ULA-7299       0.012
##  ULA-7302       0.011
##  ULA-9714       0.009
##  ULA-7300       0.013
##  ULA-9715       0.008
##  ULA-7301       0.007
plot(Charly_output,xlab='Age (cal years BP)',ylab='Depth (cm)',las=1)