It's 5 and 10 on Skywatch TV for November 14th.
I'm Derek Gilbert.
A special program today as we try to make sense of what's going on in the Middle East.
As we reported yesterday, it appears that Saudi Arabia is not even pretending anymore
that the other Sunni-led nations, and we'll use that definition loosely to define the
Palestinian Authority, are actually controlling their own destinies.
Both the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Sa'ad Hariri, and the President of the Palestinian
Authority summoned to Riyadh by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in recent days and essentially
told, here is what's going to happen, resulted in the resignation of Sa'ad Hariri, ostensibly
because he was not aggressive enough in confronting Hezbollah, the Shia power, political power
inside Lebanon.
And in the case of the Palestinian Authority, according to reports from Israel, told by Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the Palestinian Authority would accept a peace plan being
developed now by the Trump administration, or he would resign.
What exactly is going on and what are the Saudis trying to accomplish?
For some analysis, we turn to an expert in Middle Eastern geopolitics, a Pentagon insider,
and the author of the new book, The Deeper State, Lieutenant Colonel Bob McGinnis.
Colonel McGinnis, how do we make sense of this?
Is this just the theology, the theological differences between Sunnis and Shias being
played out in the political realm?
There's no question that going back over a thousand years, that the Sunni and Shia,
for historical reasons and family reasons, dislike one another, and you can probably
say hate one another because of the radical differences and interpretation of the holy
books of Islam.
However, I really see that it's more geopolitical and that they're trying to seize power, and
they're in a head-to-head contest across the entire Middle East, much less a larger part
of the dysphoria across the world, and so it's really a power grab.
What we've seen here recently, plenty of events, suggests that Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman, who, of course, is expecting that the King Salman will die and not too just
in future, is consolidating its power.
And I say that because of the arrest, a couple hundred of them this past week, the Interior
Minister arrested, removed, the head of the National Guard, the head of the Navy, these
are all instruments of power within the Riyadh government, and so he's placed in there people
that are under his control.
Now, he's also confiscated a lot of wealth from thousands of personnel with foreign banks
that he has influence over in such countries as Kuwait.
And then, of course, you've had people that have, outside of the region, who have been
proxies to a certain degree, that are beginning to heads are rolling.
Certainly former Prime Minister, questionably former Harari, who comes out of Lebanon last
week, flies in to Riyadh, not given a welcome as traditionally a Prime Minister would.
Now, keep in mind, he has Saudi citizenship as well.
And then he makes this very interesting statement on Saturday, indicating that he's resigning.
Now, why would he go to Saudi Arabia to resign?
He said Nasrallah, who is the head of Hezbollah, which there was power sharing in Lebanon.
Of course, Nasrallah is the proxy of Tehran, and that Tehran has consolidated its power
with the political pressure in Lebanon, and therefore they're pushing Harari out of the
way so that they can seize more control.
Now, given that, and of course, what's going on with Hamas and the Palestinians, and forcing
Abbas to sing the Saudi song, now, keep in mind, Hamas, the Palestinians' authority
and the like have been pretty cozy with the Iranians.
We've seen a lot of arms and funding pour into, especially Hamas.
And of course, here recently, just last week, we saw a missile that was shot from Yemeni's
territory toward Riyadh, fortunate for the Saudis it was knocked down.
And then, of course, over the weekend, there was a claim by one of the commanders of the
Houthis, which are a rebel aligned with Iran, really the primary resistance against the
pro-Saudi side.
I said, no, it was a homemade bomb.
Well, apparently, the forensics on that particular missile that was shot down had all sorts of
Iranian markings.
So nobody believed them.
Then of course, over the weekend, you had a drone that was down by the Israelis on the
Golden Heights, and the Israelis made it very clear that they've been watching an Iranian
facility just south of Damascus about 30 miles away from Golan.
And they're saying that they're not going to tolerate Iranian activities in that area.
Now, of course, we know that the IRGC has been operating all over Syria, and of course,
sort of like an occupation power, thousands have been there.
And of course, Hezbollah has been occupying as well.
And they're both one IRGC's part of that regime, and then Hezbollah, of course, primarily
funded by it.
And then Northern Iraq is much the same.
It's the Iranians that are killing the Christians now, that are pushing the Kurds back into
their cubby holes in Kirk and elsewhere, and then intimidating the people in Baghdad.
So with all of that going on, you find it difficult to believe that one Iran isn't exercising
its hegemonic desires, which have been expressed for many, many years.
And then the Crown Prince is saying, look, enough is enough.
And so he is putting into power positions all his lackeys.
He's pulling in the reins.
He's forcing the Sunnis to find a backbone and leaven on, starting to do so, of course,
by blockading the ports and the airfields in Yemen, standing the Emirates tall and
saying, look, you're going to choose sides.
And of course, they're going to have to choose a Sunni side because of where they're located.
And then the rhetoric, the Crown Prince's rhetoric, and that of the spokespersons out
of Riyadh are suggesting that this is like warfare, that they're blaming the Iranians
for all this trouble.
So we do have a proxy war going on, whether or not it begins to engage mainline forces
both from Saudi as well as Iran, that's to be determined.
But we can't be too far from it.
And the thing that really complicates things for us in the West, I mean, most of us in
America don't really know what the differences are between Sunni and Shia.
But there are more players on the field than just Sunni and Shia because within the Sunni
ranks, and you've got the Islamic State at the radical end of it, but you've also got
the various factions allied with al-Qaeda, and they're not necessarily friendly with
the Islamic State.
The Islamic State has more or less been pushed out of Iraq.
It's down to like one little enclave on the border between Iraq and Syria, if I understand
correctly, right on the Euphrates River.
The Kurds are Sunni, but they're not ethnic Arab.
And while the Shia in Iraq are allied with the Shia from Iran, there is a difference between
their ethnicity as well, Arabs and Persians, and their historic enemies as well.
So it's a big convoluted mess.
Did we see, and I've asked you this question before, who among us, other than you, because
I know you did, saw this coming when we decided to go in and take down the Sunni bulwark against
Shia Islam, Saddam Hussein, back in 2003?
You know, Saddam fully understood the distinctions between the Sunni and the Shia populations
and how antagonistic they were against one another, and the trend toward radicalism that
would emerge.
Now, he was Iraq himself, butchered, no one to be sympathetic with, but he was sitting
on a counter peg, and he used force to control it, and did a reasonably good job of keeping
it under controlling, though there was a lot of bloodshed there.
Some of the things you said provoked some thoughts, in that one, Iran has some pretty
vicious proxies, mentioned in his beloved or others.
We have seen ISIS begin to seep back into al-Qaeda, which is in Syria, and they have
sort of a legitimate claim in that they have been resisting Bashir Assad, and so that's
an element of what's going on.
And, of course, you've mentioned the Kurds.
The Turks hate the Kurds.
They have Kurdish groups inside of Turkey, but the Kurds, of course, had this independence
vote over a month ago.
And their Barsani, who was their president, basically resigned, and they still have a
very capable military, whether it's the Syrian version of the Kurds, or the Peshmerga, or
even some of the Iranians.
And, of course, they're all working against Baghdad, Damascus, certainly against Tehran,
against Erdogan in Turkey.
And so that's part of this whole equation.
So you have these radicals, you have these independent movements, you have Christians
in the midst of all this that aren't on either side, and they're not necessarily loyal to
Baghdad or Tehran or any of these regimes.
So it is an incredibly complex arena, and no wonder nobody has crystal clear vision
as to what the future may behold.
One other interesting thing that was announced recently, which is Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman's plan of this new gleaming high-tech city that he calls Niyam that he wants to
put right there at the tip of the Gulf of Aqaba, which would involve Saudi Arabia, Jordan,
Egypt, and probably Israel as well, and he's promised to move Saudi Arabia in a more moderate
direction and create a sort of Dubai on the Red Sea, which might eventually result in
Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel as a state.
And certainly Israel and the Saudis seem to have a shared interest in countering the
Shia influence in Syria.
What do you see happening there?
Yeah, there's no doubt that the Saudis and the Israelis have a common enemy, and that's
in Tehran, and they've both been threatened by the Mullahs, the Ali Khomeini's, and his
henchmen in Tehran with annihilation.
So they're cooperating behind the scenes, not as much in the public viewpoint.
It's interesting that Mohammed bin Salam, Salman, recognizes that he absolutely must
diversify his economy.
They've been totally, since 1932, when the House of Saud took over the Arabian Peninsula
from the Ottoman Empire, have been totally reliant upon petroleum and their exports.
Now, given that petroleum is fungible and that the United States is no longer dependent
upon mid-east oil, and the price is really depressed, that you're finding the recognition
by the modern, the younger Saudis that they've got to do something.
They can't continue paying a stipend to everybody in the country.
They don't have any other source of income, so they have to diversify.
And so he's getting rid of all these old princes and a lot of these people that are
tied to the past and pushing the envelope to recognize new alliances and new ways in
which he can really energize the population to care for itself past the next 20, 30 years.
And that's absolutely indispensable.
Otherwise, they're not going to survive the way that they have in the past.
Tough times ahead for all involved.
It's, again, interesting times and no clear path forward.
Lieutenant Colonel Bob McGinnis is the author of The Deeper State.
Bob, always an education when we talk.
Thanks for your time.
Thanks, Derek.
Take us with you.
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for watching.
As we keep watching, I'm Derek Gilbert, and this is Skywatch TV.
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