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Metric Description

In order to evaluate the submitted probability maps against the actual find location, a rating metric developed by Rossmo [1] has been implemented.

The Rossmo metric has gained favor in crime mapping literature. Let p be the probability assigned to the actual find location. Rossmo's r is the proportion of pixels whose probability is greater than p plus one half the proportion of pixels whose probability is equal to p . Chance performance would be 50%, so r can be converted to a -1 to 1 scale using R =(.5 - r)/ 5, with 1 being perfect and negative scores denoting worse-than-chance performance. (a)

The Rossmo r has an operational interpretation. Assume:

  1. All searchers have perfect detection P(D) = 1 in all cells.
  2. All searchers travel the same speed in all cells.
  3. Resources are allocated optimally (so that each additional hour of effort makes the largest possible change in overall probability of success).

Then, r is (nearly) the expected proportion of cells one would have to search before finding the subject. Similarly, R is the proportional gain over random searching. These could easily be converted into expected time to find.

In our presentation of the model rating results, the model rating corresponds to the Rossmo R metric.

(a) The number of pixels should be large enough that there is no substantial difference in R between proportion of pixels and proportion of other pixels. With only two pixels and a perfect model, one yields R = 1, and the other R = 0.

References
[1] D. Kim Rossmo. Geographic Pro_ling. CRC Press, 1 edition, December 1999.

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