==============================================================================
HD 2.4.f — Q14 era-boundary spike
==============================================================================

Cohort: top-10 by FY 2008 R&D (HD 2.1.b continuity).
Spot years: FY 2008, 2009 (era-A Item 3), FY 2010, 2011 (era-B Q14).
Grain: discipline_fine='All', source_class='all_source', form_type='standard', expenditure_type='r&d_equipment'.

[1] Per-institution per-year r&d_equipment totals (kUSD_current):

  inst_id  institution                                  FY2008     FY2009     FY2010     FY2011
  -------- ---------------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  029977   Johns Hopkins University                     69,818     68,137     78,763     76,041
  001319   University of California, San Francisco      16,765     17,941     20,965     21,878
  003895   University of Wisconsin Madison              35,804     50,228     39,758     47,329
  001315   University of California, Los Angeles        31,191     25,855     24,972     30,068
  001317   University of California, San Diego          35,460     34,689     39,048     40,950
  002920   Duke University                               7,249     10,884     10,735     12,583
  003378   University of Pennsylvania                   18,763     16,634     42,635     26,511
  008802   Ohio State University all campuses           24,227     22,513     22,151     18,991
  001305   Stanford University                          18,231     17,096     33,141     34,596
  002178   Massachusetts Institute of Technology        31,470     32,704     41,251     47,620

  Sign-positive cells: 40 / 40 populated
  Sign-consistency: PASS

[2] Boundary ratio (Q14 FY2010 / Item 3 FY2009):

  inst_id  institution                                Item3_2009     Q14_2010    ratio    in band
  -------- ---------------------------------------- ------------ ------------ -------- ----------
  029977   Johns Hopkins University                       68,137       78,763    1.156  OK [1.16]
  001319   University of California, San Francisco        17,941       20,965    1.169  OK [1.17]
  003895   University of Wisconsin Madison                50,228       39,758    0.792  OK [0.79]
  001315   University of California, Los Angeles          25,855       24,972    0.966  OK [0.97]
  001317   University of California, San Diego            34,689       39,048    1.126  OK [1.13]
  002920   Duke University                                10,884       10,735    0.986  OK [0.99]
  003378   University of Pennsylvania                     16,634       42,635    2.563 OUT [2.56]
  008802   Ohio State University all campuses             22,513       22,151    0.984  OK [0.98]
  001305   Stanford University                            17,096       33,141    1.939  OK [1.94]
  002178   Massachusetts Institute of Technology          32,704       41,251    1.261  OK [1.26]

  Boundary ratio distribution (n=10 populated pairs):
    min:    0.792
    p25:    0.984
    median: 1.141
    p75:    1.261
    max:    2.563
    mean:   1.294

  In-band [0.5, 2.0]: 9 / 10 populated pairs
  Magnitude-stability: FAIL

[3] Cohort-aggregate equipment totals + boundary ratios:

  FY2008:  cohort-total =        288,978 kUSD_current
  FY2009:  cohort-total =        296,681 kUSD_current
  FY2010:  cohort-total =        353,419 kUSD_current
  FY2011:  cohort-total =        356,567 kUSD_current

  Cohort boundary ratio (Q14_2010 / Item3_2009): 1.191
  Cohort 2011/2008 ratio (long-gap):       1.234

[4] Leaf-sum cross-check ('All' row vs. sum across discipline_fine!='All'):

  inst_id  year      All_row     leaf_sum      delta  delta_pct
  -------- ---- ------------ ------------ ---------- ----------
  029977   2008       69,818      106,232     36,414     52.16%  !
  029977   2009       68,137      105,189     37,052     54.38%  !
  029977   2010       78,763      136,421     57,658     73.20%  !
  029977   2011       76,041      130,254     54,213     71.29%  !
  001319   2008       16,765       33,530     16,765    100.00%  !
  001319   2009       17,941       35,882     17,941    100.00%  !
  001319   2010       20,965       41,930     20,965    100.00%  !
  001319   2011       21,878       43,756     21,878    100.00%  !
  003895   2008       35,804       70,551     34,747     97.05%  !
  003895   2009       50,228       99,792     49,564     98.68%  !
  003895   2010       39,758       78,226     38,468     96.76%  !
  003895   2011       47,329       94,177     46,848     98.98%  !
  001315   2008       31,191       59,159     27,968     89.67%  !
  001315   2009       25,855       49,055     23,200     89.73%  !
  001315   2010       24,972       47,573     22,601     90.51%  !
  001315   2011       30,068       58,025     27,957     92.98%  !
  001317   2008       35,460       68,877     33,417     94.24%  !
  001317   2009       34,689       62,170     27,481     79.22%  !
  001317   2010       39,048       75,752     36,704     94.00%  !
  001317   2011       40,950       75,841     34,891     85.20%  !
  002920   2008        7,249       14,418      7,169     98.90%  !
  002920   2009       10,884       21,423     10,539     96.83%  !
  002920   2010       10,735       21,267     10,532     98.11%  !
  002920   2011       12,583       24,972     12,389     98.46%  !
  003378   2008       18,763       37,309     18,546     98.84%  !
  003378   2009       16,634       32,436     15,802     95.00%  !
  003378   2010       42,635       74,161     31,526     73.94%  !
  003378   2011       26,511       49,614     23,103     87.14%  !
  008802   2008       24,227       47,220     22,993     94.91%  !
  008802   2009       22,513       44,230     21,717     96.46%  !
  008802   2010       22,151       43,104     20,953     94.59%  !
  008802   2011       18,991       36,887     17,896     94.23%  !
  001305   2008       18,231       35,988     17,757     97.40%  !
  001305   2009       17,096       33,784     16,688     97.61%  !
  001305   2010       33,141       65,297     32,156     97.03%  !
  001305   2011       34,596       67,002     32,406     93.67%  !
  002178   2008       31,470       59,880     28,410     90.28%  !
  002178   2009       32,704       61,550     28,846     88.20%  !
  002178   2010       41,251       79,491     38,240     92.70%  !
  002178   2011       47,620       91,373     43,753     91.88%  !

  Leaf-sum anomalies (>1% delta): 40 / 40

==============================================================================
HD 2.4.f verdict:
==============================================================================
  Sign-consistent (every populated cell > 0):  PASS
  Magnitude-stable (boundary ratios in [0.5, 2.0]): FAIL

  VERDICT: EQUIPMENT-SERIES DIVERGENT.
  Item 3 and Q14 do not align as a continuous equipment
  series. Methods-note ships an equipment-series
  footnote at HD 2.4.i naming the divergence with the
  empirical magnitudes printed above.

==============================================================================
Markdown findings tables (for findings report):
==============================================================================

### Per-institution per-year r&d_equipment totals

| inst_id | institution | FY2008 (Item 3) | FY2009 (Item 3) | FY2010 (Q14) | FY2011 (Q14) |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 029977 | Johns Hopkins University | 69,818 | 68,137 | 78,763 | 76,041 |
| 001319 | University of California, San Francisco | 16,765 | 17,941 | 20,965 | 21,878 |
| 003895 | University of Wisconsin Madison | 35,804 | 50,228 | 39,758 | 47,329 |
| 001315 | University of California, Los Angeles | 31,191 | 25,855 | 24,972 | 30,068 |
| 001317 | University of California, San Diego | 35,460 | 34,689 | 39,048 | 40,950 |
| 002920 | Duke University | 7,249 | 10,884 | 10,735 | 12,583 |
| 003378 | University of Pennsylvania | 18,763 | 16,634 | 42,635 | 26,511 |
| 008802 | Ohio State University all campuses | 24,227 | 22,513 | 22,151 | 18,991 |
| 001305 | Stanford University | 18,231 | 17,096 | 33,141 | 34,596 |
| 002178 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 31,470 | 32,704 | 41,251 | 47,620 |

### Boundary ratios (Q14 FY2010 / Item 3 FY2009)

| inst_id | institution | Item3 FY2009 | Q14 FY2010 | ratio | in band [0.5, 2.0] |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| 029977 | Johns Hopkins University | 68,137 | 78,763 | 1.156 | OK |
| 001319 | University of California, San Francisco | 17,941 | 20,965 | 1.169 | OK |
| 003895 | University of Wisconsin Madison | 50,228 | 39,758 | 0.792 | OK |
| 001315 | University of California, Los Angeles | 25,855 | 24,972 | 0.966 | OK |
| 001317 | University of California, San Diego | 34,689 | 39,048 | 1.126 | OK |
| 002920 | Duke University | 10,884 | 10,735 | 0.986 | OK |
| 003378 | University of Pennsylvania | 16,634 | 42,635 | 2.563 | OUT |
| 008802 | Ohio State University all campuses | 22,513 | 22,151 | 0.984 | OK |
| 001305 | Stanford University | 17,096 | 33,141 | 1.939 | OK |
| 002178 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 32,704 | 41,251 | 1.261 | OK |

