Loaded 342 VALID rows with completed 5y forward returns.

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 BASELINE — current Brina Matrix
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  Current Brina Matrix (Run 19 baseline)
    Overall: n=244, hits=130, acc=  53%, 95% CI [47%, 59%], p=0.1685
    LONG  (buy): n=81, hits=48, acc=  59%, p=0.0596
    SHORT (sell): n=163, hits=82, acc=  50%, p=0.5000

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 IMPROVEMENT 1 — drop Double Discount; promote Underestimated Growth
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  v2.5 Matrix (drop Double Discount, keep VT as bear)
    Overall: n=200, hits=108, acc=  54%, 95% CI [47%, 61%], p=0.1444
    LONG  (buy): n=37, hits=26, acc=  70%, p=0.0100
    SHORT (sell): n=163, hits=82, acc=  50%, p=0.5000

  v2.5 Strict (only UG bull + EH bear)
    Overall: n=150, hits=84, acc=  56%, 95% CI [48%, 64%], p=0.0825
    LONG  (buy): n=37, hits=26, acc=  70%, p=0.0100
    SHORT (sell): n=113, hits=58, acc=  51%, p=0.4254

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 IMPROVEMENT 2 — Gap-only with ROIC > 15% prerequisite
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  Gap-only (no MoS, no ROIC filter)
    Overall: n=279, hits=154, acc=  55%, 95% CI [49%, 61%], p=0.0467
    LONG  (buy): n=96, hits=60, acc=  62%, p=0.0092
    SHORT (sell): n=183, hits=94, acc=  51%, p=0.3838

  Gap-only + ROIC>15% prerequisite
    Overall: n=169, hits=97, acc=  57%, 95% CI [50%, 64%], p=0.0323
    LONG  (buy): n=75, hits=48, acc=  64%, p=0.0101
    SHORT (sell): n=94, hits=49, acc=  52%, p=0.3786

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 IMPROVEMENT 3 — Combination: v2.5 Strict + ROIC>15%
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  v2.5 Strict + ROIC>15%
    Overall: n=80, hits=48, acc=  60%, 95% CI [49%, 70%], p=0.0465
    LONG  (buy): n=30, hits=21, acc=  70%, p=0.0214
    SHORT (sell): n=50, hits=27, acc=  54%, p=0.3359

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 Comparison summary at 5y horizon (Run 19 data, n=108 baseline)
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  The 'v2.5' framework drops the Double Discount quadrant entirely.
  Bull-side becomes Underestimated Growth (Gap+, MoS−).
  Bear-side keeps Expensive Hype (Gap−, MoS−); optionally Value Trap.

  Compare overall accuracy and significance across the variants above.
