Loaded 451 VALID rows with completed 5y forward returns.

================================================================
 BASELINE — current Brina Matrix
================================================================

  Current Brina Matrix (Run 19 baseline)
    Overall: n=317, hits=169, acc=  53%, 95% CI [48%, 59%], p=0.1306
    LONG  (buy): n=110, hits=63, acc=  57%, p=0.0762
    SHORT (sell): n=207, hits=106, acc=  51%, p=0.3905

================================================================
 IMPROVEMENT 1 — drop Double Discount; promote Underestimated Growth
================================================================

  v2.5 Matrix (drop Double Discount, keep VT as bear)
    Overall: n=256, hits=138, acc=  54%, 95% CI [48%, 60%], p=0.1175
    LONG  (buy): n=49, hits=32, acc=  65%, p=0.0222
    SHORT (sell): n=207, hits=106, acc=  51%, p=0.3905

  v2.5 Strict (only UG bull + EH bear)
    Overall: n=180, hits=101, acc=  56%, 95% CI [49%, 63%], p=0.0586
    LONG  (buy): n=49, hits=32, acc=  65%, p=0.0222
    SHORT (sell): n=131, hits=69, acc=  53%, p=0.3001

================================================================
 IMPROVEMENT 2 — Gap-only with ROIC > 15% prerequisite
================================================================

  Gap-only (no MoS, no ROIC filter)
    Overall: n=367, hits=200, acc=  54%, 95% CI [49%, 59%], p=0.0474
    LONG  (buy): n=126, hits=76, acc=  60%, p=0.0128
    SHORT (sell): n=241, hits=124, acc=  51%, p=0.3496

  Gap-only + ROIC>15% prerequisite
    Overall: n=242, hits=138, acc=  57%, 95% CI [51%, 63%], p=0.0168
    LONG  (buy): n=102, hits=61, acc=  60%, p=0.0297
    SHORT (sell): n=140, hits=77, acc=  55%, p=0.1359

================================================================
 IMPROVEMENT 3 — Combination: v2.5 Strict + ROIC>15%
================================================================

  v2.5 Strict + ROIC>15%
    Overall: n=109, hits=64, acc=  59%, 95% CI [50%, 68%], p=0.0421
    LONG  (buy): n=41, hits=26, acc=  63%, p=0.0586
    SHORT (sell): n=68, hits=38, acc=  56%, p=0.1981

================================================================
 Comparison summary at 5y horizon (Run 19 data, n=108 baseline)
================================================================
  The 'v2.5' framework drops the Double Discount quadrant entirely.
  Bull-side becomes Underestimated Growth (Gap+, MoS−).
  Bear-side keeps Expensive Hype (Gap−, MoS−); optionally Value Trap.

  Compare overall accuracy and significance across the variants above.
