Loaded 1071 rows from file_01_full_dataset.csv

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  Per-quadrant directional accuracy by horizon — FULL SAMPLE
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Quadrant                          1yr         2yr         3yr         5yr         7yr        10yr
Double Discount             55% (n=62)   48% (n=58)   52% (n=58)   50% (n=44)   51% (n=35)   48% (n=27) 
Underestimated Growth       52% (n=50)   57% (n=47)   57% (n=44)   70% (n=37)   59% (n=32)   59% (n=17) 
Value Trap                  48% (n=92)   51% (n=86)   52% (n=77)   48% (n=50)   38% (n=34)   45% (n=22) 
Expensive Hype              48% (n=172)   50% (n=157)   48% (n=140)   51% (n=113)   52% (n=81)   64% (n=39) 
ALL DIRECTIONAL             49% (n=376)   51% (n=348)   51% (n=319)   53% (n=244)   51% (n=182)   55% (n=105) 

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  Same matrix — HIGH-QUALITY COMPOUNDER SAMPLE (ROIC > 15%)
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Quadrant                          1yr         2yr         3yr         5yr         7yr        10yr
Double Discount             56% (n=48)   56% (n=45)   58% (n=45)   54% (n=35)   56% (n=27)   50% (n=22) 
Underestimated Growth       50% (n=40)   57% (n=37)   56% (n=34)   70% (n=30)   58% (n=26)   57% (n=14) 
Value Trap                  49% (n=59)   55% (n=55)   53% (n=51)   49% (n=35)   38% (n=24)   40% (n=15) 
Expensive Hype              51% (n=84)   53% (n=73)   47% (n=64)   54% (n=50)   59% (n=32)   67% (n=12) 
ALL DIRECTIONAL             52% (n=231)   55% (n=210)   53% (n=194)   56% (n=150)   53% (n=109)   52% (n=63) 

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  Combined directional accuracy — binomial p-value vs 50% null
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 horizon     n   hits    acc           95% CI   p (one-sided)
    1yr   376    186    49%  [ 44%,  55%]       0.6017 
    2yr   348    177    51%  [ 46%,  56%]       0.3944 
    3yr   319    162    51%  [ 45%,  56%]       0.4114 
    5yr   244    130    53%  [ 47%,  59%]       0.1685 
    7yr   182     92    51%  [ 43%,  58%]       0.4705 
   10yr   105     58    55%  [ 46%,  65%]       0.1646 

  HQ sample (ROIC > 15%):
 horizon     n   hits    acc           95% CI   p (one-sided)
    1yr   231    119    52%  [ 45%,  58%]       0.3466 
    2yr   210    115    55%  [ 48%,  61%]       0.0948 *
    3yr   194    102    53%  [ 45%,  59%]       0.2591 
    5yr   150     84    56%  [ 48%,  63%]       0.0825 *
    7yr   109     58    53%  [ 44%,  62%]       0.2829 
   10yr    63     33    52%  [ 40%,  65%]       0.4007 

Legend: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10

Total observations sampled per horizon: {1: 376, 2: 348, 3: 319, 5: 244, 7: 182, 10: 105}
Pending (forward window > today) per horizon: {1: 0, 2: 28, 3: 57, 5: 132, 7: 194, 10: 271}
