Loaded 1071 rows from file_01_full_dataset.csv

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  Per-quadrant directional accuracy by horizon — FULL SAMPLE
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Quadrant                          1yr         2yr         3yr         5yr         7yr        10yr
Double Discount             57% (n=60)   50% (n=56)   54% (n=56)   51% (n=43)   51% (n=35)   48% (n=27) 
Underestimated Growth       52% (n=50)   57% (n=47)   57% (n=44)   70% (n=37)   59% (n=32)   59% (n=17) 
Value Trap                  47% (n=88)   51% (n=82)   51% (n=74)   48% (n=48)   36% (n=33)   43% (n=21) 
Expensive Hype              48% (n=155)   50% (n=141)   49% (n=125)   54% (n=103)   57% (n=72)   71% (n=35) 
ALL DIRECTIONAL             50% (n=353)   52% (n=326)   52% (n=299)   55% (n=231)   52% (n=172)   57% (n=100) 

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  Same matrix — HIGH-QUALITY COMPOUNDER SAMPLE (ROIC > 15%)
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Quadrant                          1yr         2yr         3yr         5yr         7yr        10yr
Double Discount             56% (n=48)   56% (n=45)   58% (n=45)   54% (n=35)   56% (n=27)   50% (n=22) 
Underestimated Growth       50% (n=40)   57% (n=37)   56% (n=34)   70% (n=30)   58% (n=26)   57% (n=14) 
Value Trap                  48% (n=56)   54% (n=52)   53% (n=49)   50% (n=34)   38% (n=24)   40% (n=15) 
Expensive Hype              52% (n=83)   53% (n=73)   47% (n=64)   54% (n=50)   59% (n=32)   67% (n=12) 
ALL DIRECTIONAL             52% (n=227)   55% (n=207)   53% (n=192)   56% (n=149)   53% (n=109)   52% (n=63) 

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  Combined directional accuracy — binomial p-value vs 50% null
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 horizon     n   hits    acc           95% CI   p (one-sided)
    1yr   353    176    50%  [ 45%,  55%]       0.5424 
    2yr   326    168    52%  [ 46%,  57%]       0.3091 
    3yr   299    154    52%  [ 46%,  57%]       0.3218 
    5yr   231    127    55%  [ 49%,  61%]       0.0738 *
    7yr   172     90    52%  [ 45%,  60%]       0.2968 
   10yr   100     57    57%  [ 47%,  67%]       0.0967 *

  HQ sample (ROIC > 15%):
 horizon     n   hits    acc           95% CI   p (one-sided)
    1yr   227    117    52%  [ 45%,  58%]       0.3453 
    2yr   207    113    55%  [ 48%,  61%]       0.1054 
    3yr   192    101    53%  [ 46%,  60%]       0.2581 
    5yr   149     84    56%  [ 48%,  64%]       0.0700 *
    7yr   109     58    53%  [ 44%,  62%]       0.2829 
   10yr    63     33    52%  [ 40%,  65%]       0.4007 

Legend: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10

Total observations sampled per horizon: {1: 353, 2: 326, 3: 299, 5: 231, 7: 172, 10: 100}
Pending (forward window > today) per horizon: {1: 0, 2: 27, 3: 54, 5: 122, 7: 181, 10: 253}
