Records: 342

Total head-to-head observations: 220
  Long predictions: 110, misses: 43 (39.1%)
  Short predictions: 110, misses: 51 (46.4%)
  Total correct: 126/220 = 57.3%

======================================================================
PATTERN 1 — Misses by fiscal year (when did Brina Gap struggle?):
======================================================================
  FY    n     misses   miss_rate 
  2011  20    9         45.0%
  2012  28    9         32.1%
  2013  24    12        50.0%
  2014  16    8         50.0%
  2015  14    6         42.9%
  2016  18    12        66.7%
  2017  24    9         37.5%
  2018  24    7         29.2%
  2019  28    11        39.3%
  2020  24    11        45.8%

======================================================================
PATTERN 2 — Misses by sector:
======================================================================
  sector                    n     misses   miss_rate 
  Healthcare                52    15        28.8%
  Technology                41    22        53.7%
  Industrials               33    13        39.4%
  Consumer Discretionary    27    11        40.7%
  Financial Services        18    4         22.2%
  Materials                 15    12        80.0%
  Communication Services    14    9         64.3%
  Consumer Staples          9     3         33.3%
  Energy                    7     3         42.9%
  (none)                    4     2         50.0%

======================================================================
PATTERN 3 — Does prediction confidence (|Gap|) correlate with accuracy?
======================================================================
  Gap (-∞, -20) : n= 29, correct= 16, acc= 55.2%
  Gap [-20,-10) : n= 49, correct= 29, acc= 59.2%
  Gap [-10, -5) : n= 20, correct=  9, acc= 45.0%
  Gap [-5, 0)   : n= 25, correct= 14, acc= 56.0%
  Gap [0, 5)    : n= 31, correct= 10, acc= 32.3%
  Gap [5, 10)   : n= 16, correct= 11, acc= 68.8%
  Gap [10, 20)  : n= 21, correct= 16, acc= 76.2%
  Gap [20, ∞)   : n= 29, correct= 21, acc= 72.4%

======================================================================
PATTERN 4 — Top 15 LONG misses (Gap+, predicted outperform, but underperformed):
======================================================================
  tkr    FY   sector                    gap     gf     g*    mos   5y_xs quadrant              
  SHW    2017 Materials               189.7  201.4   11.7  -49.7  -17.8% Underestimated Growth 
  ABBV   2015 Healthcare               87.7   91.0    3.3 -296.3   -0.3% Underestimated Growth 
  DHR    2020 Healthcare               76.9   96.8   19.9 -147.4  -12.2% Underestimated Growth 
  DHR    2011 Healthcare               61.4   67.3    5.9   37.3   -1.6% Double Discount       
  GD     2018 Industrials              50.1   53.9    3.9  -44.5   -3.2% Underestimated Growth 
  IBM    2019 Technology               32.1   42.1   10.0 -183.3   -2.3% Underestimated Growth 
  INTC   2011 Technology               30.4   27.8   -2.6   80.9   -3.9% Double Discount       
  QCOM   2011 Technology               20.1   27.4    7.3  -87.4   -9.2% Underestimated Growth 
  ISRG   2018 Healthcare               16.8   38.3   21.6 -581.1  -20.5% Underestimated Growth 
  CAT    2011 Industrials              14.6   19.3    4.7    0.5  -11.8% Mixed                 
  PPG    2014 Materials                12.2   18.9    6.7   96.6  -19.8% Double Discount       
  CPRT   2020 Industrials              11.0   24.1   13.2   64.5  -27.6% Double Discount       
  UNH    2019 Healthcare               10.3   17.5    7.2   68.9   -1.3% Double Discount       
  VZ     2017 Communication Services    7.4    5.1   -2.3   97.9  -13.2% Double Discount       
  CPRT   2019 Industrials               6.6   19.4   12.9   56.7  -20.7% Double Discount       

======================================================================
PATTERN 5 — Top 15 SHORT misses (Gap-, predicted underperform, but outperformed):
======================================================================
  tkr    FY   sector                    gap     gf     g*    mos   5y_xs quadrant              
  BKNG   2019 Consumer Discretionary  -54.2  -45.4    8.8   46.0    6.6% Value Trap            
  AMZN   2015                         -47.7  -10.1   37.6 -273.2   24.1% Expensive Hype        
  AMZN   2016                         -43.8  -13.7   30.1   86.7   18.5% Value Trap            
  LLY    2018 Healthcare              -43.1   -5.6   37.5 -272.8   24.5% Expensive Hype        
  NFLX   2016 Communication Services  -40.5   -0.8   39.6   13.7   20.9% Mixed                 
  NFLX   2015 Communication Services  -40.3   -1.7   38.6 -698.9   23.5% Expensive Hype        
  NFLX   2017 Communication Services  -33.9   -0.5   33.3   71.0    1.5% Value Trap            
  LLY    2016 Healthcare              -31.3    0.9   32.1 -1121.3   14.0% Expensive Hype        
  NFLX   2019 Communication Services  -24.7   -1.5   23.2   84.7    9.7% Value Trap            
  CMG    2018 Consumer Discretionary  -22.6    1.7   24.3 -1522.0   25.9% Expensive Hype        
  INTU   2020 Technology              -22.0   -3.9   18.1   78.8    6.6% Value Trap            
  FICO   2020 Technology              -21.7   -0.5   21.2 -353.1   13.9% Expensive Hype        
  QCOM   2019 Technology              -21.5  -14.0    7.5 -233.6    3.2% Expensive Hype        
  COST   2020 Consumer Staples        -17.8   -2.4   15.4   72.5    9.1% Value Trap            
  ZTS    2017 Healthcare              -17.7    0.5   18.2 -189.4    7.8% Expensive Hype        

======================================================================
PATTERN 6 — Tickers with multiple misses (≥2):
======================================================================
  DHR   : long_miss=3, short_miss=1, n=5, miss_rate=80%
  INTC  : long_miss=2, short_miss=0, n=3, miss_rate=67%
  QCOM  : long_miss=2, short_miss=1, n=3, miss_rate=100%
  AAPL  : long_miss=2, short_miss=0, n=3, miss_rate=67%
  XOM   : long_miss=3, short_miss=0, n=4, miss_rate=75%
  IBM   : long_miss=2, short_miss=0, n=2, miss_rate=100%
  PPG   : long_miss=3, short_miss=0, n=4, miss_rate=75%
  VZ    : long_miss=4, short_miss=0, n=5, miss_rate=80%
  SHW   : long_miss=2, short_miss=2, n=4, miss_rate=100%
  TJX   : long_miss=2, short_miss=0, n=4, miss_rate=50%
  CPRT  : long_miss=2, short_miss=0, n=3, miss_rate=67%
  UNH   : long_miss=2, short_miss=0, n=10, miss_rate=20%
  LMT   : long_miss=2, short_miss=1, n=3, miss_rate=100%
  EMR   : long_miss=2, short_miss=0, n=3, miss_rate=67%
  APD   : long_miss=1, short_miss=3, n=4, miss_rate=100%
  COST  : long_miss=0, short_miss=3, n=4, miss_rate=75%
  ADP   : long_miss=0, short_miss=4, n=4, miss_rate=100%
  NFLX  : long_miss=0, short_miss=5, n=9, miss_rate=56%
  LOW   : long_miss=0, short_miss=2, n=4, miss_rate=50%
  BKNG  : long_miss=0, short_miss=3, n=5, miss_rate=60%
  INTU  : long_miss=0, short_miss=2, n=2, miss_rate=100%
  HD    : long_miss=0, short_miss=2, n=3, miss_rate=67%
  TYL   : long_miss=0, short_miss=3, n=6, miss_rate=50%
  MA    : long_miss=0, short_miss=3, n=7, miss_rate=43%
  AMZN  : long_miss=0, short_miss=2, n=4, miss_rate=50%
  FICO  : long_miss=0, short_miss=2, n=4, miss_rate=50%
  LLY   : long_miss=0, short_miss=3, n=3, miss_rate=100%
