BY-COVID WP5.2 Baseline Use Case: SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness

Comparative analysis

Survival

Time Stratum Survival probability (95% CI), BEL Survival probability (95% CI), ESP Survival probability (95% CI), FIN
0 Non-exposure group 1.000 (1.000 - 1.000) 1.000 (1.000 - 1.000) 1.000 (1.000 - 1.000)
182 Non-exposure group 0.877 (0.876 - 0.878) 0.847 (0.844 - 0.849) 0.962 (0.961 - 0.962)
365 Non-exposure group 0.774 (0.772 - 0.776) 0.711 (0.706 - 0.715) 0.835 (0.832 - 0.838)
547 Non-exposure group 0.739 (0.723 - 0.756) 0.592 (0.571 - 0.613) 0.765 (0.726 - 0.805)
0 Control group 1.000 (1.000 - 1.000) 1.000 (1.000 - 1.000) 1.000 (1.000 - 1.000)
182 Control group 0.612 (0.610 - 0.614) 0.752 (0.748 - 0.755) 0.951 (0.951 - 0.952)
365 Control group 0.230 (0.226 - 0.233) 0.489 (0.484 - 0.495) 0.841 (0.838 - 0.844)
547 Control group 0.135 (0.118 - 0.154) 0.367 (0.348 - 0.388) 0.817 (0.806 - 0.827)

The plots are limited to the three most administered vaccination schedules in the Participant Nodes.

Cumulative incidence

Time Stratum Cumulative incidence, BEL Cumulative incidence, ESP Cumulative incidence, FIN
0 Non-exposure group 0.000 0.000 0.000
182 Non-exposure group 0.123 0.153 0.038
365 Non-exposure group 0.226 0.289 0.165
547 Non-exposure group 0.261 0.408 0.235
0 Control group 0.000 0.000 0.000
182 Control group 0.388 0.248 0.049
365 Control group 0.770 0.511 0.159
547 Control group 0.865 0.633 0.183

Hazard ratio

Effect estimate by Participant Node:

Participant Node logHR (95% CI) HR (95% CI) P-value
ESP -0.631 (-0.65, -0.613) 0.532 (0.52, 0.544) 0.000000e+00
BEL -1.488 (-1.498, -1.479) 0.226 (0.223, 0.228) 0.000000e+00
FIN -0.263 (-0.279, -0.248) 0.768 (0.754, 0.782) 2.468871e-176

Forest plot:

Restricted Mean Survival Time (RMST) Difference

Effect estimate by Participant Node:

Country RMST control RMST intervention RMSTD P-value
ESP 280.758 (279.943, 281.573) 316.696 (316.035, 317.357) 35.938 (34.889, 36.988) 0.000
BEL 214.444 (214.144, 214.745) 274.070 (273.862, 274.278) 59.626 (59.260, 59.991) 0.000
FIN 340.580 (340.268, 340.893) 342.145 (341.807, 342.483) 1.565 (1.104, 2.025) 0.000

Forest plot:

RMST Difference by schedule

Effect estimate by schedule, by Participant Node. The plots are limited by the three most administered vaccination schedules in the Participant Nodes.

Country Vaccination schedule RMST control RMST intervention RMSTD P-value
ESP BP-BP 283.142 (282.212, 284.072) 317.235 (316.478, 317.993) 34.093 (32.894, 35.293) 0.000
ESP MD-MD 275.375 (272.687, 278.064) 314.208 (311.977, 316.439) 38.833 (35.339, 42.326) 0.000
ESP AZ-AZ 271.276 (267.921, 274.631) 307.061 (304.059, 310.064) 35.785 (31.283, 40.288) 0.000
BEL BP-BP 214.332 (213.990, 214.675) 273.340 (273.102, 273.578) 59.007 (58.590, 59.424) 0.000
BEL MD-MD 224.735 (223.629, 225.842) 279.734 (279.008, 280.460) 54.999 (53.676, 56.322) 0.000
BEL AZ-AZ 211.119 (209.998, 212.239) 273.696 (272.913, 274.479) 62.577 (61.210, 63.945) 0.000
FIN BP-BP 284.517 (284.320, 284.715) 286.074 (285.867, 286.281) 1.557 (1.270, 1.843) 0.000
FIN MD-MD 284.015 (283.437, 284.592) 287.796 (287.224, 288.369) 3.782 (2.969, 4.595) 0.000
FIN AZ-AZ 292.071 (291.546, 292.596) 293.602 (293.069, 294.135) 1.531 (0.784, 2.279) 0.000

Forest plot: